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一只可爱的猪 · 2021年09月16日

为什么不选bond

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201909280100000802

问题如下:

2 In answering the question raised in Statement 2, Park would most likely recommend:

选项:

A.

bonds.

B.

hedge funds.

C.

private equities.

解释:

C is correct.

When projecting expected returns, the order of returns from highest to lowest is typically regarded as private equities, hedge funds, bonds. Therefore, the probability of achieving the highest portfolio return while maintaining the funded status of the plan would require the use of private equities in conjunction with public equities. In addition, private equities have a high/strong potential to fulfill the role of capital growth. Fixed-income investments are expected to have a high/strong potential to fulfill the role of safety.

这道题从题干分析,单纯就是让选expected return最高的,根据“PE比hedge fund的return高”这个结论就能解题。这道题没让考虑diversification的问题,题目要求“achieve the greatest probability of maintaining the pension funding status over a long time horizon”,目前funded status是能够不依靠contribution,支付“a number of years”的pension payments,投资目标是希望可以维持这种状态“over a long time horizon”,因为不依靠contribution,那么就只能依靠投资收益,题干又要求“greatest probability”,PE的expected return是最高的,所以选C。

 is there a single asset class that could be used for the balance of the portfolio to achieve the greatest probability of maintaining the pension funding status over a long time horizon? 

maintaining the pension funding status不是需要比较稳定的CF吗,那不是bond更适合吗?PE会不会风险太大了


1 个答案

伯恩_品职助教 · 2021年09月16日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


这里两点要注意,保持pension funding status最重要的是什么?是不是本山大哥说的“人活着,钱没了?”所以这里说的maintain是说要保持维护退休生活的能力,那就是要尽可能的提高收益。

第二就是风险角度说,bond虽然风险确实低,问题,就像把钱存银行,等退休时候取出来,死的心都有,bond只适合短期投资,遇到大的通胀应付很差,小的通胀的话相对收益又很低,产生的收益覆盖不了生活开支,很危险。而且还有老师圈出来的是长期,一般退休时间都很长,几十年,足够长的时间给修补短期下跌造成的亏损提供了可能,类似拿茅台2012拿的血亏到吐血,但是如果拿到现在呢?所以足够的长期收益是更重要的。

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