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阿盈阿盈啊 · 2021年09月11日

volatile market 为什么不是fully hedge

NO.PZ2016010501000005

问题如下:

Kalila Al-Khalili has been hired as a consultant to a Middle Eastern sovereign wealth fund. The fund‘s oversight committee has asked her to examine the fund‘s financial characteristics and recommend an appropriate currency management strategy given the fund's Investment Policy Statement. After a thorough study of the fund and its finances, Al-Khalili reaches the following conclusions:

The fund's mandate is focused on the long-term development of the country, and the royal family (who are very influential on the fund's oversight committee) are prepared to take a long-term perspective on the fund's investments.

The fund's strategic asset allocation is tilted towards equity rather than fixed-income assets.

Both its fixed-income and equity portfolios have a sizeable exposure to emerging market assets.

Currently, about 90% of exchange rate exposures are hedged although the IPS allows a range of hedge ratios.

Liquidity needs of the fund are minimal, since the government is running a balanced budget and is unlikely to need to dip into the fund in the near term to cover fiscal deficits. Indeed, the expected lifetime of country's large oil reserves has been greatly extended by recent discoveries, and substantial oil royalties are expected to persist into the future.

Based on her investigation, Al-Khalili would most likely recommend:

选项:

A.

active currency management.

B.

a hedging ratio closer to 100%.

C.

a narrow discretionary band for currency exposures.

解释:

A is correct.

The fund has a long-term perspective, few immediate liquidity needs, and a lower weight in fixed income that in equities (bond portfolios are typically associated with hedge ratios closer to 100% than equity portfolios). The emerging market exposure would also support active management, given these countries' typically higher yields (carry trade) and often volatile exchange rates.

B is incorrect because the characteristics of the fund and the beneficial investor (in this case, the royal family) do not argue for a conservative currency strategy.

C is incorrect because a more active currency management strategy would be more suitable for this fund.

讲义说volatile financial market 更倾向于fully hedge,此题发展中国家volatile,为何是不hedge?另外还想问下怎么区分何时用active 何时用passive 管理;何时用active fully hedge 何时用passive fully hedge?
4 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa015 · 2021年09月12日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好

active/passive与hedge/unhedge是两个维度哈,并不是说active就不hedge。一般来说,passive是要hedge的,而active投资是可以hedge也可以不hedge,取决于基金经理对未来的预期。

此题长期投资(支持不hedge)、流动性需求小(支持不hedge),更exposure to fixed income market(支持hedge),更多投资emerging markets(支持hedge),IPS允许不是完全hedge(hedge与不hedge均可)。

综上,既有支持hedge的因素,也有支持不hedge的因素,所以,到底是否hedge或者说hedge多少是要基金经理自己来决定的,这是active management。



passive management:追求minimize tracking error。

active management:追求maxmize profit。

active fully hedge:认为hedged RFX>unhedged RFX (汇率标价形式为DC/FC,DC代表本币,FC代表投资国家币种)

passive fully hedge:基金经理没有对汇率的判断,此时投资emerging market,hedge成本很高,投资期是短期(violatile),主要是fixed income exposure等等市场条件时使用。


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

阿盈阿盈啊 · 2021年09月12日

懂了 讲的很透彻 感激不尽

Mlj · 2021年10月13日

请问为什么更exposure to fixed income market支持hedge?谢谢

506623496 · 2021年10月13日

更多投资emerging markets(支持hedge)到底是hedge 还是不 hedge?和另一个回答有矛盾

pzqa015 · 2021年10月13日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


实证观察到的现象。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

pzqa015 · 2021年10月13日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


更多投资emerging markets(支持hedge)到底是hedge 还是不 hedge?和另一个回答有矛盾

---------------


投资emerging markets到底hedge不hedge,没有统一的定论,主要原因有两个方面:

一方面,通常emerging markets波动会较为剧烈,所以倾向于hedge。

另一方面,emerging markets不像发达国家市场,hedge工具不健全,hedge可能成本会很高,此时倾向于不hedge。

所以提到emerging markets到底是否hedge,还是要看题目给的条件来确定。本题没有提到emerging market存在的hedge成本高的问题,所以可以认为应该要hedge。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

pzqa015 · 2021年10月13日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


请问为什么更exposure to fixed income market支持hedge?谢谢

----------------------


因为fixed income投资与currency的相关性较强所以exposure to more fixed income时,更倾向于hedge。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

Mlj · 2021年10月13日

为什么fixed income和currency 相关性强呢?因为int rate parity吗?

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NO.PZ2016010501000005 问题如下 Kalila Al-Khalili hbeen hirea consultant to a Mile Eastern sovereign wealth fun The funs oversight committee haskeher to examine the funs financicharacteristianrecommenappropriate currenmanagement strategy given the funs Investment PoliStatement. After a thorough stu of the funanits finances, Al-Khalili reaches the following conclusions:■ The funs mante is focuseon the long-term velopment of the country, anthe royfamily (who are very influention the funs oversight committee) are prepareto take a long-term perspective on the funs investments.■The funs strategic asset allocation is tiltetowar equity rather thfixeincome assets.■Both its fixeincome anequity portfolios have a sizeable exposure to emerging market assets.■Currently, about 90% of exchange rate exposures are heealthough the IPS allows a range of hee ratios.■Liquity nee of the funare minimal, sinthe government is running a balancebuet anis unlikely to neeto p into the funin the neterm to cover fiscficits. Ine the expectelifetime of country's large oil reserves hbeen greatly extenrecent scoveries, ansubstantioil royalties are expecteto persist into the future.Baseon her investigation, Al-Khalili woulmost likely recommen A.active currenmanagement. B.a heing ratio closer to 100%. C.a narrow scretionary banfor currenexposures. A is correct.The funha long-term perspective, few immeate liquity nee, ana lower weight in fixeincome thin equities (bonportfolios are typically associatewith hee ratios closer to 100% thequity portfolios). The emerging market exposure woulalso support active management, given these countries' typically higher yiel (carry tra) anoften volatile exchange rates.B is incorrebecause the characteristiof the funanthe beneficiinvestor (in this case, the royfamily) not argue for a conservative currenstrategy.C is incorrebecause a more active currenmanagement strategy woulmore suitable for this fun中文解析题干中描述的这个这个基金的特征包括长期性,倾向于投资股票,在发展国家市场有投资,以及流动性需求小等特点,都告诉我们这只基金没有现在必须要兑付的一些流动性要求呀,或者负债偿付(如果有的话,我们可能需要把敞口尽可能的hee住),相反的考虑到投资发展中国家市场可能会面临较高的汇率变动,我们应该做更加积极主动地管理(A对),而不需要100% hee住(B不对),或者在外汇管理上有更少的自主管理(C不对)。另外,发展中国家一般利率比较高,同时波动比较大。这样就表示投资发展中国家会有很多可能性很多的不确定性(不确定性也就是风险),因为风险与收益并存,于是我们想抓住不确定性中好的可能性来进行获利。所以我们在不断捕捉好的可能性的时候需要的是主动管理,不断根据市场变化,来采取积极主动的措施抓住机会。所以我们在外汇管理中遇到投资发展中国家的情况,默认采取active management。 就是我知道A是对的,但是B为什么是错的。

2024-09-19 15:38 1 · 回答

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2024-07-31 00:10 1 · 回答

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2024-07-04 20:24 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2016010501000005 问题如下 Kalila Al-Khalili hbeen hirea consultant to a Mile Eastern sovereign wealth fun The funs oversight committee haskeher to examine the funs financicharacteristianrecommenappropriate currenmanagement strategy given the funs Investment PoliStatement. After a thorough stu of the funanits finances, Al-Khalili reaches the following conclusions:■ The funs mante is focuseon the long-term velopment of the country, anthe royfamily (who are very influention the funs oversight committee) are prepareto take a long-term perspective on the funs investments.■The funs strategic asset allocation is tiltetowar equity rather thfixeincome assets.■Both its fixeincome anequity portfolios have a sizeable exposure to emerging market assets.■Currently, about 90% of exchange rate exposures are heealthough the IPS allows a range of hee ratios.■Liquity nee of the funare minimal, sinthe government is running a balancebuet anis unlikely to neeto p into the funin the neterm to cover fiscficits. Ine the expectelifetime of country's large oil reserves hbeen greatly extenrecent scoveries, ansubstantioil royalties are expecteto persist into the future.Baseon her investigation, Al-Khalili woulmost likely recommen A.active currenmanagement. B.a heing ratio closer to 100%. C.a narrow scretionary banfor currenexposures. A is correct.The funha long-term perspective, few immeate liquity nee, ana lower weight in fixeincome thin equities (bonportfolios are typically associatewith hee ratios closer to 100% thequity portfolios). The emerging market exposure woulalso support active management, given these countries' typically higher yiel (carry tra) anoften volatile exchange rates.B is incorrebecause the characteristiof the funanthe beneficiinvestor (in this case, the royfamily) not argue for a conservative currenstrategy.C is incorrebecause a more active currenmanagement strategy woulmore suitable for this fun中文解析题干中描述的这个这个基金的特征包括长期性,倾向于投资股票,在发展国家市场有投资,以及流动性需求小等特点,都告诉我们这只基金没有现在必须要兑付的一些流动性要求呀,或者负债偿付(如果有的话,我们可能需要把敞口尽可能的hee住),相反的考虑到投资发展中国家市场可能会面临较高的汇率变动,我们应该做更加积极主动地管理(A对),而不需要100% hee住(B不对),或者在外汇管理上有更少的自主管理(C不对)。另外,发展中国家一般利率比较高,同时波动比较大。这样就表示投资发展中国家会有很多可能性很多的不确定性(不确定性也就是风险),因为风险与收益并存,于是我们想抓住不确定性中好的可能性来进行获利。所以我们在不断捕捉好的可能性的时候需要的是主动管理,不断根据市场变化,来采取积极主动的措施抓住机会。所以我们在外汇管理中遇到投资发展中国家的情况,默认采取active management。 这道题是active management的原因是不是就单纯是因为是emerging markets, 跟别的characteristics无关?比如\"sinthe government is running a balancebuet anis unlikely to neeto p into the funin the neterm to cover fiscficits.\",即使说了unlikely neeto p?

2024-04-16 10:08 2 · 回答

NO.PZ2016010501000005 问题如下 Kalila Al-Khalili hbeen hirea consultant to a Mile Eastern sovereign wealth fun The funs oversight committee haskeher to examine the funs financicharacteristianrecommenappropriate currenmanagement strategy given the funs Investment PoliStatement. After a thorough stu of the funanits finances, Al-Khalili reaches the following conclusions:■ The funs mante is focuseon the long-term velopment of the country, anthe royfamily (who are very influention the funs oversight committee) are prepareto take a long-term perspective on the funs investments.■The funs strategic asset allocation is tiltetowar equity rather thfixeincome assets.■Both its fixeincome anequity portfolios have a sizeable exposure to emerging market assets.■Currently, about 90% of exchange rate exposures are heealthough the IPS allows a range of hee ratios.■Liquity nee of the funare minimal, sinthe government is running a balancebuet anis unlikely to neeto p into the funin the neterm to cover fiscficits. Ine the expectelifetime of country's large oil reserves hbeen greatly extenrecent scoveries, ansubstantioil royalties are expecteto persist into the future.Baseon her investigation, Al-Khalili woulmost likely recommen A.active currenmanagement. B.a heing ratio closer to 100%. C.a narrow scretionary banfor currenexposures. A is correct.The funha long-term perspective, few immeate liquity nee, ana lower weight in fixeincome thin equities (bonportfolios are typically associatewith hee ratios closer to 100% thequity portfolios). The emerging market exposure woulalso support active management, given these countries' typically higher yiel (carry tra) anoften volatile exchange rates.B is incorrebecause the characteristiof the funanthe beneficiinvestor (in this case, the royfamily) not argue for a conservative currenstrategy.C is incorrebecause a more active currenmanagement strategy woulmore suitable for this fun中文解析题干中描述的这个这个基金的特征包括长期性,倾向于投资股票,在发展国家市场有投资,以及流动性需求小等特点,都告诉我们这只基金没有现在必须要兑付的一些流动性要求呀,或者负债偿付(如果有的话,我们可能需要把敞口尽可能的hee住),相反的考虑到投资发展中国家市场可能会面临较高的汇率变动,我们应该做更加积极主动地管理(A对),而不需要100% hee住(B不对),或者在外汇管理上有更少的自主管理(C不对)。另外,发展中国家一般利率比较高,同时波动比较大。这样就表示投资发展中国家会有很多可能性很多的不确定性(不确定性也就是风险),因为风险与收益并存,于是我们想抓住不确定性中好的可能性来进行获利。所以我们在不断捕捉好的可能性的时候需要的是主动管理,不断根据市场变化,来采取积极主动的措施抓住机会。所以我们在外汇管理中遇到投资发展中国家的情况,默认采取active management。 老师好,我可能有个知识点搞混淆了,想确认下。hee比例越高,是代表越倾向于passive是吗?我看了下大家的问题和回答,是这么理解的题目中的背景,其实暗示了可以选择更激进更active的策略,所以原先90%的hee ratio显得太高了、需要调低,是这么理解是吗?

2024-01-29 18:10 1 · 回答