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翁旸勤 · 2021年09月02日

什么是illusion of knowledge?

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201511190100000301

问题如下:

By taking credit for successes but assigning blame for failures, Jordan is most likely demonstrating:

选项:

A.

loss-aversion bias.

B.

self-attribution bias.

C.

illusion of knowledge bias.

解释:

B is correct.

Self-attribution is a bias in which people take credit for successes and assign responsibilities for failure. Jordan attributes successful decisions to herself while poor decisions are attributed to the team. Her self-esteem affects how she looks at success and failure. Self-attribution and illusion of knowledge biases contribute to overconfidence bias, which Jordan clearly demonstrates later when she tells the team that she knows what she is doing.

什么是illusion of knowledge?

1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2021年09月02日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


有种过度自信可能是高估了知识水平、能力和信息获取的结果。例如,人们通常在估计概率方面做得很差,但却认为自己做得很好,因为他们认为自己比实际情况更聪明,更了解情况

这种行为有时被称为 Illusion of knowledge,在基础班讲义 P95

我们一般提到 Illusion of knowledge,是因为它和 self-attribution 会造成 Overconfidence,所以是在介绍 Overconfidence 时提到的

"Illusion of knowledge and self-attribution biases contribute to the overconfidence bias"

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