NO.PZ201812310200000308
问题如下：
Which of Kreming’s observations regarding actual and risk-neutral default probabilities is correct?
选项：
A.Only Observation 1
Only Observation 2
Both Observation 1 and Observation 2
解释：
B is correct. Observation 1 is incorrect, but Observation 2 is correct. The actual default probabilities do not include the default risk premium associated with the uncertainty in the timing of the possible default loss. The observed spread over the yield on a risk-free bond in practice does include liquidity and tax considerations, in addition to credit risk.
老师，
这里“The observed spread over the yield on a risk-free bond in practice includes liquidity and tax considerations, in addition to credit risk.”的observed spread是指的是risk netural POD吗？
还有就是何老师在课上说“我们在计算risk netural POD时，我们认为所有的spread补偿的都是credit risk,所以risk netural POD比actural POD大”。这句话我怎么都理解不了，好像转不过弯来，我在想风险中性POD就当是所有spread都是credit risk，那也只不过就是把tax,liquidity都归到了credit里面，只是一个饼内部的分割问题。但是整个饼还是这么大，怎么现在这个饼还不一样大了呢。老师能帮我解释下吗？谢谢老师！
