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六姑娘 · 2021年08月28日

这题不懂

NO.PZ2020033001000068

问题如下:

An unexpected short-term increase in high-priced luxury automobiles is just reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Which of the following most accurately describes an anticipated impact on a mean-reverting model of interest rates?

选项:

A.

The economic information would last long and mean-reversion parameter would be low.

B.

The economic information would not last long and mean-reversion parameter would be low.

C.

The economic information would last long and mean-reversion parameter would be high.

D.

The economic information would not last long and mean-reversion parameter would be high.

解释:

D is correct.

考点:mean-reversion

解析:

题目中提到了这个变化是short-term,预计短期就会恢复到均值水平。同样的变化,回归到均值的时间越短,必然这个回归均值的速度的值就很大,即high mean-reversion parameter.

麻烦从头到尾解析一遍,谢谢

1 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2021年08月29日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


这道题题干给出的材料是说,豪华汽车的预期之外的、短期的价格升高,会对利率的均值回归模型造成什么影响?


奢侈品价格的短期意外升高,会导致利率模型的mean-reverting速度非常快,可能在几天之内就迅速的跌回到mean附近,所以not last long,并且mean reversion parameter(均值回归参数,控制了模型的均值回归速度) 会很大。所以D项是对的

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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