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13581943293 · 2021年08月19日

请问,不是分析师想要证明的放在H0里吗?

NO.PZ2015120204000015

问题如下:

Based on past research, Hansen selects the following independent variables to predict IPO initial returns:

Underwriter rank = 1–10, where 10 is highest rank

Pre-offer price adjustment (Expressed as a decimal) = (Offer price – Initial filing price)/Initial filing price

Offer size ($ millions) = Shares sold × Offer price

Fraction retained (Expressed as a decimal) = Fraction of total company shares retained by insiders

He also believes that for each 1 percent increase in pre-offer price adjustment, the initial return will increase by less than 0.5 percent, holding other variables constant. Hansen wishes to test this hypothesis at the 0.05 level of significance.

Hansen collects a sample of 1,725 recent IPOs for his regression model.

\Hansen’s Regression Results Dependent Variable: IPO Initial Return (Expressed in Decimal Form, i.e., 1% = 0.01)

Selected Values for the t-Distribution (df = ∞)

The most appropriate null hypothesis and the most appropriate conclusion regarding Hansen’s belief about the magnitude of the initial return relative to that of the pre-offer price adjustment (reflected by the coefficient bj) are:

选项:

Null Hypothesis
Conclusion about bj(0.05 Level of Significance)
A.
H0: bj=0.5
Reject H0
B.
H0: bj≥0.5
Fail to reject H0
C.
H0: bj≥0.5
Reject H0

解释:

C is correct.

C To test Hansen’s belief about the direction and magnitude of the initial return, the test should be a one-tailed test. The alternative hypothesis is H1: bj<0.5b_j<0.5, and the null hypothesis is H0:bj0.5b_j\geq0.5 . The correct test statistic is: t = (0.435-0.50)/0.0202 = -3.22, and the critical value of the t-statistic for a one-tailed test at the 0.05 level is -1.645. The test statistic is significant, and the null hypothesis can be rejected at the 0.05 level of significance.

我怎么会认为H0应该是是Y<=0.5呢?请老师在帮忙梳理一下,谢谢。

1 个答案
已采纳答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年08月20日

同学你好,

想证明的放备择假设觉得有问题的,想去推翻的放原假设

做假设检验的动机就是因为 研究者通过观察发现了和原假设所不一致的证据,进而觉得原假设可能会有问题从而去做检验。

所以原假设必然就是研究者所怀疑的。而发现的和原假设不一致的证据(备择假设)就是想证明的。

本题中“He also believes that for each 1 percent increase in pre-offer price adjustment, the initial return will increase by less than 0.5 percent”,所以他相信的是bj<0.5,从而得出原假设为bj≥0.5.


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