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徐威廉 · 2021年08月02日

time period bias

NO.PZ2018091901000047

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist who develops capital market expectations for an investment firm that invests across asset classes and global markets. Wakuluk started her career when the global markets were experiencing significant volatility and poor returns; as a result, she is now careful to base her conclusions on objective evidence and analytical procedures to mitigate any potential biases.

Wakuluk most likely seeks to mitigate which of the following biases in developing capital market forecasts?

选项:

A.

Availability

B.

Time period

C.

Survivorship

解释:

A is correct.

Wakuluk started her career when the global markets were experiencing signifcant volatility and poor returns. She is careful to base her conclusions on objective evidence and analytical procedures to mitigate potential biases, which suggests she is seeking to mitigate an availability bias. Availability bias is the tendency to be overly influenced by events that have left a strong impression and/or for which it is easy to recall an example.

解析:题中提到Wakuluk的职业生涯开始时,全球市场正经历严重的波动和糟糕的回报。她谨慎地将自己的结论建立在客观证据和分析程序的基础上,以减少潜在的偏见,这表明她正在寻求减少availability bias

availability bias是指容易被留下深刻印象和/或容易回忆起一个例子的事件过度影响的倾向。

所以A选项正确,BC在这里都是打酱油的选项。

看了老师的解释,感觉很牵强,我理解的是他虽然身处不好的经济环境下,但是仍然能审慎分析,明显是消除了time period bias啊
徐威廉 · 2021年08月04日

Time period是指使用某一段数据产生的偏差,是这段数据本身的偏差,而题目数的是之前的行情对后续工作分析的影响,所以availability bias更合适。

3 个答案
已采纳答案

源_品职助教 · 2021年08月02日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


Time period是指使用某一段数据产生的偏差,是这段数据本身的偏差,而题目数的是之前的行情对后续工作分析的影响,所以availability bias更合适。

survivorship bias是指行情不好,业绩不好的死了,留下来的都是好的,高估了业绩。

而这里其实是因为受到不好的影响,那么主人公对于业绩的理解是谨慎的悲观的,和survivorship bias实质不符。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

源_品职助教 · 2021年08月06日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


好的,预祝考试顺利~

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

源_品职助教 · 2021年08月05日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学写的评论这句话话,是还有什么疑问吗?

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

徐威廉 · 2021年08月06日

不是的老师,是平时上班用手机看的,回到家才能用电脑粘贴到题目笔记里,这样操作方便

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相关问题

NO.PZ2018091901000047问题如下 Neshie Wakuluk is investment strategist who velops capitmarket expectations for investment firm thinvests across asset classes anglobmarkets. Wakuluk starteher career when the globmarkets were experiencing significant volatility anpoor returns; a result, she is now careful to base her conclusions on objective evinananalyticproceres to mitigate any potentibiases.Wakuluk most likely seeks to mitigate whiof the following biases in veloping capitmarket forecasts? A.Availability B.Time perioC.Survivorship A is correct. Wakuluk starteer career when the globmarkets were experiencing signifcant volatility anoor returns. She is careful to base her conclusions on objective evinannalyticproceres to mitigate potentibiases, whisuggests she isseeking to mitigate availability bias. Availability biis the tenntooverly influenceevents thhave left a strong impression anor forwhiit is easy to recall example.解析题中提到Wakuluk的职业生涯开始时,全球市场正经历严重的波动和糟糕的回报。她谨慎地将自己的结论建立在客观证据和分析程序的基础上,以减少潜在的偏见,这表明她正在寻求减少availability bias。availability bias是指容易被留下深刻印象和/或容易回忆起一个例子的事件过度影响的倾向。所以A正确,B,C在这里都是打酱油的。 我咋没看到这个bias呢?还有请问一下,如果答案有representative bias能不能选呢?

2024-03-13 17:41 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2018091901000047 同问,为什么不选择B和C,因为经历了严重的波动和糟糕的回报的时期,一方面建模和分析尽量避免time perio响,这段时期的数据和其他时期数据会有重大偏离;第二方面,经历了严重波动,会存在survivorship bias,许多公司或者组合会中止;最后选择才是A吧。

2021-07-01 14:39 2 · 回答

Time perioSurvivorship A is correct. Wakuluk starteer career when the globmarkets were experiencing signifcant volatility anoor returns. She is careful to base her conclusions on objective evinannalyticproceres to mitigate potentibiases, whisuggests she isseeking to mitigate availability bias. Availability biis the tenntooverly influenceevents thhave left a strong impression anor forwhiit is easy to recall example. 解析题中提到Wakuluk的职业生涯开始时,全球市场正经历严重的波动和糟糕的回报。她谨慎地将自己的结论建立在客观证据和分析程序的基础上,以减少潜在的偏见,这表明她正在寻求减少availability bias。 availability bias是指容易被留下深刻印象和/或容易回忆起一个例子的事件过度影响的倾向。 所以A正确,B,C在这里都是打酱油的。 为什么是选A  而不是选C呢?

2020-10-26 18:40 1 · 回答

Time perioSurvivorship A is correct. Wakuluk starteer career when the globmarkets were experiencing signifcant volatility anoor returns. She is careful to base her conclusions on objective evinannalyticproceres to mitigate potentibiases, whisuggests she isseeking to mitigate availability bias. Availability biis the tenntooverly influenceevents thhave left a strong impression anor forwhiit is easy to recall example. 解析题中提到Wakuluk的职业生涯开始时,全球市场正经历严重的波动和糟糕的回报。她谨慎地将自己的结论建立在客观证据和分析程序的基础上,以减少潜在的偏见,这表明她正在寻求减少availability bias。 availability bias是指容易被留下深刻印象和/或容易回忆起一个例子的事件过度影响的倾向。 所以A正确,B,C在这里都是打酱油的。 为什么不是timeperio?专门说了目前是动荡时期,尽量避开这一时期的影响 感觉time prriobi也对啊

2020-05-19 20:50 3 · 回答