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天天向上 · 2021年07月30日

还是有点想不明白,短期内利率下降,长期利率也下降,都下降为什么不是flatten

NO.PZ2018091901000054

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:

Observation 3 The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.

invert.

B.

flatten.

C.

steepen

解释:

C is correct.

The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

解析:

Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。

所以只有C选项正确。

还是有点想不明白,短期内利率下降,长期利率也下降,都下降为什么不是flatten?是因为短期下降幅度更大吗

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2021年07月30日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学的理解是OK的。短期利率应该下降的更快。因为货币政策直接影响利率,幅度更大。

然后再由短期利率传导到长期利率。

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