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Ivy · 2021年07月29日

请问老师,40/1.1^t t=9,这个计算器怎么按啊?还是要一个一个按,按9个?

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NO.PZ201601200500000804

问题如下:

4. What is the NPV (C$ millions) of the optimal set of investment decisions for Society Services including the expansion option?

选项:

A.

6.34.

B.

12.68.

C.

31.03.

解释:

B is correct.

Assume we are at time = 1. The NPV of the expansion (at time 1) if demand is "high" is

NPV=190+t=19401.10t=C$40.361millionNPV=-190+\sum_{t=1}^9\frac{40}{1.10^t}=C\$40.361million

The NPV of the expansion (at time 1) if demand is "low" is

NPV=190+t=19201.10t=C$74.820millionNPV=-190+\sum_{t=1}^9\frac{20}{1.10^t}=‐C\$74.820million

The optimal decision is to expand if demand is "high" and not expand if "low."

Because the expansion option is exercised only when its value is positive, which happens 50 percent of the time, the expected value of the expansion project, at time zero, is

NPV=11.100.50(40.361)=C$18.346millionNPV=\frac1{1.10}0.50(40.361)=C\$18.346million

The total NPV of the initial project and the expansion project is

NPV = –C$5.663 million + C$18.346 million = C$12.683 million

The optional expansion project, handled optimally, adds sufficient value to make this a positive NPV project.

请问老师,40/1.1^t t=9,这个计算器怎么按啊?还是要一个一个按,按9个?
2 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2021年08月01日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


谢谢老师 我真是个笨蛋 我想起来了

同学快别这么说哈

咱们在复习的过程中,偶尔遗忘知识点,是非常正常的现象,同学千万别自责

正因为会遗忘,所以我们才会有多轮次的复习,抗击遗忘

另外,只有多在考前通过多做题,发现知识点的盲区,才能增加通过的概率

所以如果遇到错题,应该开心才是哈。心态轻松,多轮复习,多做练习和总结,一定可以一次搞定二级,加油!

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

王琛_品职助教 · 2021年07月30日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


1.

同学问的是解析中,第一个计算 NPV 的表达式。并不是按 9 个哈,而是使用计算器第三行。具体按法如下:

CLR WORK 清零

CF0 = -190

C01 = 40 (t=1 至 t=9 的现金流)

F01 = 9

I = 10

CPT NPV = 40.360953

2.

关于计算器的使用,同学可以再复习一下「早读课」中的课程:How to Use Financial Calculator BA II Plus 中的倒数第二个视频 Cash Flow Calculation

3.

另外,二级公司理财,咱们在评估项目的 NPV 时,还有一种情况,就是有期末 TNOCF。此时,按计算器的方法,也需要同学掌握

我找了一道基础班例题,比如基础班讲义 P26 的 NPV 计算公式。同学可以先按照讲义中的公式写法,按一下计算器

按完以后,可以和下面的链接答复核对哈:https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/81326

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

Ivy · 2021年07月30日

谢谢老师 我真是个笨蛋 我想起来了

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NO.PZ201601200500000804 请问行权的时候不就是最优价值了吗?为什么最后还要加上没有option的原始NPV呢?谢谢!

2021-10-23 10:56 1 · 回答

NO.PZ201601200500000804 12.68. 31.03. B is correct. Assume we are time = 1. The NPV of the expansion (time 1) if manis \"high\" is NPV=−190+∑t=19401.10t=C$40.361millionNPV=-190+\sum_{t=1}^9\frac{40}{1.10^t}=C\$40.361millionNPV=−190+∑t=19​1.10t40​=C$40.361million The NPV of the expansion (time 1) if manis \"low\" is NPV=−190+∑t=19201.10t=‐C$74.820millionNPV=-190+\sum_{t=1}^9\frac{20}{1.10^t}=‐C\$74.820millionNPV=−190+∑t=19​1.10t20​=‐C$74.820million The optimcision is to expanif manis \"high\" annot expanif \"low.\" Because the expansion option is exerciseonly when its value is positive, whihappens 50 percent of the time, the expectevalue of the expansion project, time zero, is NPV=11.100.50(40.361)=C$18.346millionNPV=\frac1{1.10}0.50(40.361)=C\$18.346millionNPV=1.101​0.50(40.361)=C$18.346million The totNPV of the initiprojeanthe expansion projeis NPV = –C$5.663 million + C$18.346 million = C$12.683 million The optionexpansion project, haneoptimally, as sufficient value to make this a positive NPV project.为何不是在0时刻看,有两种情况 需求低,只投了190,不追加投资,npv为负 追加投资190,需求高,npv为正然后将两种情况各0.5加权求和?现在答案只考虑了第二种情况加权0.5,为何不第一种情况也加权0.5加在一起呢

2021-04-17 16:10 1 · 回答

为什么现金流要乘以0.5呢?即使PROBABILITY是50%,但是这个不是应该假设已经是OPTIMAL了吗,为什么还需要考虑概率。谢谢!

2020-06-04 11:09 1 · 回答

12.68. 31.03. B is correct. Assume we are time = 1. The NPV of the expansion (time 1) if manis \"high\" is NPV=−190+∑t=19401.10t=C$40.361millionNPV=-190+\sum_{t=1}^9\frac{40}{1.10^t}=C\$40.361millionNPV=−190+∑t=19​1.10t40​=C$40.361million The NPV of the expansion (time 1) if manis \"low\" is NPV=−190+∑t=19201.10t=‐C$74.820millionNPV=-190+\sum_{t=1}^9\frac{20}{1.10^t}=‐C\$74.820millionNPV=−190+∑t=19​1.10t20​=‐C$74.820million The optimcision is to expanif manis \"high\" annot expanif \"low.\" Because the expansion option is exerciseonly when its value is positive, whihappens 50 percent of the time, the expectevalue of the expansion project, time zero, is NPV=11.100.50(40.361)=C$18.346millionNPV=\frac1{1.10}0.50(40.361)=C\$18.346millionNPV=1.101​0.50(40.361)=C$18.346million The totNPV of the initiprojeanthe expansion projeis NPV = –C$5.663 million + C$18.346 million = C$12.683 million The optionexpansion project, haneoptimally, as sufficient value to make this a positive NPV project.扩张项目的PVCF1已经得出,为什么折现一期的PV就是NPV?能不能用老师说的画图作差法再一下?

2020-03-30 06:03 1 · 回答