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徐威廉 · 2021年07月26日

carry trade

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201902210100000103

问题如下:

Among the carry trades available in the US, Euro, and UK markets, the highest expected return for the USD-denominated portfolio over the next 6 months is closest to:

选项:

A.

0.275%.

B.

0.85%.

C.

0.90%.

解释:

B is correct.

The highest potential return, 0.85%, reflects borrowing USD for 6 months and buying the UK 5-year bond. The carry component of the expected return is actually a loss of 0.15% [= (1.10% – 1.40%)/2], but this is more than offset by the 1% expected appreciation of GBP versus USD. A much higher carry component +0.90% = (1.95% – 0.15%)/2 could be obtained by borrowing for 6 months in EUR to buy the US 5-year note, but that advantage would be more than offset by the expected 1% loss from depreciation of the USD (long) against the Euro (short).

A is incorrect because a higher expected return of 0.85% can be obtained. This answer, +0.275% [= (1.95% – 1.40%)/2], is the highest carry available over the next 6 months within the US market itself (an intra-market carry trade).

C is incorrect. This answer (+0.90%) is the highest potential carry component of return but ignores the impact of currency exposure (being long the depreciating USD and short the appreciating Euro).

我整理一下思路,老师看看对不对哈?这道题由于题目限定了no more than one market所以我们确定为inter- market carry trade,涉及US,UK,EUR三个币种中我们分别尝试出借6个月投5年的最大利差,再结合汇率变动算出总收益选择最高的!

2 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa015 · 2021年07月27日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


是的同学,你的思路是没问题的。

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玛卡巴卡 · 2021年09月14日

1、请问下,题目哪里提到了 no more than one market?如果题目要求是不超过一个市场,那也应该是做intral market carry trade 吧,为什么是inter? 2、题目没有提到EURO 、UK相比于US的汇率是多少,如何比较哪种货币最便宜呢? 3、题目是说mexicao和greece更有吸引力,我理解是说让我们从EURO UK US里面选便宜的借,然后投到那两种里面么?

pzqa015 · 2021年09月15日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


1、请问下,题目哪里提到了 no more than one market?如果题目要求是不超过一个市场,那也应该是做intral market carry trade 吧,为什么是inter?

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case中有句话:Based on these views,Winslow is considering three types of trades.First,she is looking at carry trades,with or without taking currency exposure,among her three base currency markets.Each such trade will involve extending duration (e.g..lend long/borrow short) in no more than one market

这句话提到了no more than one market。

题目问的是among the carry trades available in the US、Euro and UK markets,the highest expected return for the USD-dominated portfolio over the next 6 months

所以,我们要找的是三个币种在intramarket carry trade与inter market carry trade中profit最大的。

 

2、题目没有提到EURO 、UK相比于US的汇率是多少,如何比较哪种货币最便宜呢?

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我们不需要知道两种货币之间的汇率具体值,只需要知道基金经理对货币升贬值的预期即可,题干中说,它预期墨西哥比索兑欧元贬值2%,美元兑欧元贬值1%,英镑兑欧元汇率保持不变。所以,可以大致推算出欧元、英镑兑美元升值1%(注意是大致推算出,因为美元对欧元贬值用的是EUR/USD汇率标价,而欧元兑美元升值用的是USD/EUR,美元对欧元贬值1%并不意味着欧元兑美元升值1%,这里简化处理)

3、题目是说mexicao和greece更有吸引力,我理解是说让我们从EURO UK US里面选便宜的借,然后投到那两种里面么?

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你理解的不对哈,S同学三个portfolio的base currency是USD、EUR、GBP,她是想扩大三个portfolio投资品种,想投资除三种货币以外的MXN和GREEK,所以,应该是从MXN和Greek中选择attractive的进行投资。


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