嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:
行为偏差是咱们行为金融的重点内容,对于每个 bias,咱们都会讲解四个部分:定义、结果、识别和克服,重点是前三个
关于两个偏差的介绍,讲义上都有,同学自己看即可:Illusion of control bias 在基础班讲义 P71-P73,Conservatism bias 在基础班讲义 P59-P61
我说一下考试时候需要注意的点吧
1.
Illusion of control bias, 考查真题:2012-4-B, 典型行为比如
1)认为预测时使用的模型用了很多参数或指标,所以预测结果会很准 "Illusion of control bias can lead analysts to feel they have all available data and have reduced or eliminated all risk in forecasting model"
2)重仓自己所在的公司的股票 "Researchers have found that some investors prefer to invest in companies that they may feel they have some control over, like the companies they work for, leading them to hold concentrated positions. In fact, most investors have almost no control over the companies they work for."
2.
Conservatism bias, 考查真题: 2018-4-B, 2017-5-A
关于 conservatism bias,建议和 representativeness 放到一起辨析
因为两个偏差,都涉及 base information 和 new information
Representativeness 是重视 new information, 轻视 base information, 结果是采纳观点或预测时,几乎完全基于新信息
"Adopt a view or a forecast based almost exclusively on new information or a small sample."
Conservatism bias 是重视 base information,轻视 new information,保持或缓慢地更新一个观点或预测,即使有新的信息出现。
"Maintain or be slow to update a view or a forecast, even when presented with new information."
3.
建议:学习行为偏差就像背单词,光背定义还不够,就像要把单词放到具体的语句中去理解一样,行为偏差,还需要结合题目,看一下协会是怎么考查这个偏差的,题干都出现了哪些关键词。这部分知识点,一定要多做一些题目,针对同样的偏差,多总结一些关键词
----------------------------------------------加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!