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徐威廉 · 2021年07月10日

这题为什么没有表现representetiveness?

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201511190100000306

问题如下:

Which one of the following biases did Jordan not demonstrate?

选项:

A.

Self-attribution.

B.

Representativeness.

C.

Illusion of knowledge.

解释:

B is correct.

Nowhere in the scenario did it mention that Jordan classified certain information into a personalized category. Representativeness bias is a cognitive bias in which people tend to classify new information based on past experiences and classifications. Jordan is not relating the certainty about the future or her decision to hold losing positions back to something she has done or experienced in the past.

倒数第二段She reassures the team that this strategy has performed well in the past and that the markets will revert and the fund’s returns will return to normal levels.这句话就表明了jordan根据过去的经验判断未来啊

1 个答案
已采纳答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2021年07月12日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


我觉得从关键词 reassure 判断,其反映的偏差是过度自信中的 certainty overconfidence

由于过于肯定自己的判断而赋予结果的概率过高时,就会出现确定性过度自信

关于 representativeness,建议和 conservatism bias 放到一起辨析,因为两个偏差,都涉及 base information 和 new information

历年真题中,有两道题考查过:[2018-4-B](1.16), [2017-5-A](1.6)

格式说明:[真题](经典题)。例:[2018-4-B](1.16),即真题 2018 年第 4 题的 B 问,经典题 R8 的 1.16 题

建议同学先把这两道题做一下,解题思路可以听一下经典题老师的讲解,感觉一下协会对 representativeness 的考查

关于这道题的分析建议,也请参考:https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/80524

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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