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PaisleyPPx · 2021年07月07日

老师

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NO.PZ201512300100000303

问题如下:

3. In the current interest rate environment, using a required return estimate based on the short-term government bond rate and a historical equity riskpremium defined in terms of a short-term government bond rate would be expected to:

选项:

A.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates upwards.

B.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates downwards.

C.

have no effect on long-term required return on equity estimates.

解释:

A is correct.

The required return reflects the magnitude of the historical equity risk premium, which is generally higher when based on a short-term interest rate (as a result of the normal upward sloping yield curve), and the current value of the rate being used to represent the risk-free rate. The short-term rate is currently higher than the long-term rate, which will also increase the required return estimate. The short-term interest rate, however, overstates the long-term expected inflation rate. Using the short-term interest rate, estimates of the long-term required return on equity will be biased upwards.

老师 长期政府债券的利率不是应该比长期的高吗?

这道题考察的知识点是哪个?

1 个答案

韩韩_品职助教 · 2021年07月12日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好,这个题目考察的是ERP的估计,这里题目是根据现有的信息让你去推断对ERP的影响,从而推断对Re的影响。所以这里给出的信息都不是真实的结论需要你去记忆,只是让我们根据题目给出的信息,进行分析。

你可以看材料中关于利率环境的描述,在最后一段,说尽管通常情况下,收益率去先都是向上倾斜的,是不是Rf st < Rf lt, 但是现在的政府收益率是倒挂的,也就是Rf st > Rf lt, 短期是9%,长期是7%。Re = Rf st + β*(RM-Rf st)

注意这里公式里面有两个Rf st,这两个Rf st代表的不同的含义。

第一项的Rf st用的是现在的short term bond yield, 是不是题目当中告诉我们现在的Rf st是大于Rf lt的,所以第一项是比较高的,那么再来看第二部分的ERP,这部分是historical ERP估计出来的,所以这里的Rf st实际上是历史上利率曲线是normal形态下,也就是短期利率小于长期利率情况下的ERP, 历史上Rf st比较小,是不是historical ERP就会比较高。

这两项都比较高,那么整体是不是就会高估Re。

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