NO.PZ201512300100000303
问题如下：
3. In the current interest rate environment, using a required return estimate based on the short-term government bond rate and a historical equity riskpremium defined in terms of a short-term government bond rate would be expected to:
选项：
A. bias long-term required return on equity estimates upwards.
B. bias long-term required return on equity estimates downwards.
C. have no effect on long-term required return on equity estimates.
解释：
A is correct.
The required return reflects the magnitude of the historical equity risk premium, which is generally higher when based on a short-term interest rate (as a result of the normal upward sloping yield curve), and the current value of the rate being used to represent the risk-free rate. The short-term rate is currently higher than the long-term rate, which will also increase the required return estimate. The short-term interest rate, however, overstates the long-term expected inflation rate. Using the short-term interest rate, estimates of the long-term required return on equity will be biased upwards.
老师你好，这题的解答中说历史的ERP曲线是向上倾斜的，请问这个是为什么？需要考虑题目中战争状态时候的ERP吗？战争状态的话ERP曲线应该是向下倾斜的吧。