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muamadove · 2021年06月29日

利率曲线即将invert,所以利润率降低吗

NO.PZ2020021601000013

问题如下:

Ivan Paulinic, an analyst at a large wealth management firm, meets with his supervisor to discuss adding financial institution equity securities to client portfolios.

Paulinic gathers data on three national banks that meet initial selection criteria but require further review.

All of the national banks under consideration primarily make long- term loans and source a significant portion of their funding from retail deposits. Paulinic and the rest of the research team note that the central bank is unwinding a long period of monetary easing as evidenced by two recent increases in the overnight funding rate. Paulinic informs his supervisor that:

Statement 1 Given the recently reported stronger- than- anticipated macroeconomic data, there is an imminent risk that the yield curve will invert.

Statement 2 N- bank is very active in the 30- day reverse repurchase agreement market during times when the bank experiences significant increases in retail deposits.

Based on Statement 1, the net interest margin for the three banks’ most likely will:

选项:

A.

decrease.

B.

remain unchanged.

C.

increase.

解释:

A is correct.

A bank’s net interest margin represents the difference between interest earned on loans and other interest- bearing assets and the level of interest paid on deposits and other interest- bearing liabilities. Banks typically borrow money for shorter terms (retail deposits) and lend to customers for longer periods (mortgages and car loans). If the yield curve unexpectedly inverts, the short- term funding costs will increase and the net interest margin will most likely decrease (not remain unchanged or increase).

1、All of the national banks under consideration primarily make long- term loans and source a significant portion of their funding from retail deposits. Paulinic and the rest of the research team note that the central bank is unwinding a long period of monetary easing as evidenced by two recent increases in the overnight funding rate.

2、yield curve will invert


可不可以理解为利率曲线即将invert,长期利率降低,银行的收入来源long- term loans收益也降低,近期的deposit的利率上升,所以利润率降低

1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2021年06月30日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


严谨的说,这道题并没有描述「长期」利率的变化。根据题意,不管长期利率是否变化、变化多少,结果都是:「短期」利率将大于「长期」利率

在 2021 年的考纲中,net interest margin 与 net interest revenue 或者 net interest income 同义,指通过贷款和其他有息资产所赚取的利息收入,减去,存款和其他有息负债所支付的利息费用

银行通常通过零售贷款等期限较短的贷款借钱,然后再通过抵押贷款或汽车贷款等期限较长的贷款给客户,从中赚取利润

如果收益率曲线意外倒挂,那么短期融资成本增加,所以 net interest margin 降低

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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