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菱秋秋 · 2021年06月17日

请问正确答案这个点在哪里讲过?

NO.PZ2018122701000028

问题如下:

According to extreme value theory (EVT), when examining distributions of losses exceeding a threshold value, which of the following is correct?

选项:

A.

To apply EVT, the underlying loss distribution must be either normal or lognormal.

B.

The threshold value is typically chosen near the estimated mean of the underlying loss distribution.

C.

The number of exceedances decreases as the threshold value decreases, which causes the reliability of the parameter estimates to increase.

D.

As the threshold value is increased, the distribution of exceedances converges to a generalized Pareto distribution.

解释:

D is correct.

考点 Extreme Value

解析 A key foundation of EVT is than as the threshold value is increased, the distribution of loss exceedances converges to a generalized Pareto distribution. Assuming the threshold is high enough, excess losses can be modeled using the Generalized Pareto distribution.

To apply EVT, the underlying loss distribution can be any of the commonly used distributions: normal, lognormal, t, etc., and will usually be unknown.

Choosing the threshold value near the estimated mean of the underlying loss distribution is arbitrary and this method is not typically employed.

As the threshold value is decreased, the number of exceedances increases.

请问正确答案这个点在哪里讲过?

1 个答案

品职答疑小助手雍 · 2021年06月18日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这句话的原话在讲义44页,如下图。这部分不用太在意具体的计算,重点就是掌握这些结论啦。

----------------------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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NO.PZ2018122701000028

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