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杨木木 · 2021年06月14日

Statement 2 关于【Prospect theory】中的overweighting & underweighting

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NO.PZ201511190100000101

问题如下:

Which of the following statements is most consistent with expected utility theory?

选项:

A.

Statement 1.

B.

Statement 2.

C.

Statement 3.

解释:

C is correct.

Statement 3 is most consistent with expected utility theory. The client exhibits self-control and is able to defer consumption. This client is considering short-term and long-term goals and attempting to maximize the present value of utility. In Statement 1, beliefs are being updated using heuristics rather than Bayes’ formula. Statement 2 is consistent with prospect theory; the client is overweighting the probability of a high financial impact outcome (gains on options) and underweighting the probability of a loss (the option premium cost).

请问老师,这个Statement 2 里对应的overweighting & underweighting知识点是下面的Subjective Probability Weighting吗?

那么,overweighting P(gain), underweighting P(loss),为什么gain是小概率事件,而loss是大概率事件?


1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2021年06月15日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


1)这个Statement 2 里对应的overweighting & underweighting知识点是下面的Subjective Probability Weighting吗?

是的

2)那么,overweighting P(gain), underweighting P(loss),为什么gain是小概率事件,而loss是大概率事件?

prospect theory 有两个组成部分 value function 和 decision weights,这道题涉及的其实是 decision weights

概率加权函数表达了这样一个事实:人们倾向于对小概率事件反应过度,而对中等和大概率事件反应不足。"The probability-weighting function expresses the fact that people tend to overreact to small probability events but underreact to mid-sized and large probabilities."

这里只是将人们的反映,和概率发生的大小联系在一起。至于具体概率事件的影响,即 gain 还是 loss,是取决于事件本身的

比如本题的背景说的是做多期权,所以小概率对应的是 gain;如果背景改成买保险,那么小概率事件对应的则是 loss

也请参考:https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/68320

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