NO.PZ2018062002000167
问题如下:
Peter, an analyst is trying to assess the company's stock. The company just paid a dividend of $0.50 a share. The dividend is expected to grow by 25% next year, and 10% the year after. Starting from the third year, the dividend is expected to grow by 5% a year. If the required rate of return is 8%, the intrinsic value of the stock is closest to:
选项:
A. $20.00
B. $25.00.
C. $21.8
解释:
C is correct. V 0 =0.625/1.08+0.6875/(1.08^2)+24.0625/(1.08^2)=21.8
Note that D1 = 0.5(1.25) = 0.625, D2 = 0.5(1.25)(1.1) = 0.6875, and P2 = D3/(k – g) =0.6875 (1.05)/(0.08 – 0.05) = 24.0625
考点:Multi-stage Model
这道题就是未来现金流折现求零时刻的估值,未来有三笔现金流:D1、D2、和P2,那么我们把他们分被折现到零时刻就可以得到V0。
解析中计算已经写的很详细了,但是有几处提问较多:
1、“just paid”就是刚刚支付的意思,就是D0。
2、用计算器的步骤:第一步 计算出D1=0.625,D2=0.6875,P2=24.0625
第二步 用计算器:CF0=0,C01=0.625,F01=1,C02=D2+P2=0.6875+24.0625,F02=1, I/Y=8, CPT--NPV=21.8
3、因为从第三年开始永续增长,所以我们计算的是P2(相当于根据D3先计算得到P2), 因此解析里折现的是D1、D2+P2。你也可以用D4算P3,然后再将D1\D2\D3和P3一起折现到零时刻,两种算法的结果是一样的。
算出来不知道为什么不对