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Sonia · 2021年06月03日

我觉得我把equity return和risk premium 搞混了

NO.PZ2015121810000042

问题如下:

Risk-averse investors demanding a large equity risk premium are most likely expecting their future consumption outcomes and equity returns to be:

选项:

A.

uncorrelated.

B.

positively correlated.

C.

negatively correlated.

解释:

B is correct.

If investors demand high equity risk premiums, they are likely expecting their future consumption and equity returns to be positively correlated. The positive correlation indicates that equities will exhibit poor hedging properties, as equity returns will be high (e.g., pay off) during "good times" and will be low (e.g., not pay off) during "bad times". In other words, the covariance between risk-averse investors’ inter-temporal rates of substitution and the expected future prices of equities is highly negative, resulting in a positive and large equity risk premium. This is the case because, in good times, when equity returns are high, the marginal value of consumption is low. Similarly, in bad times, when equity returns are low, the marginal value of consumption is high. Holding all else constant, the larger the magnitude of the negative covariance term, the larger the risk premium.

考点: equity risk premium & consumption outcomes

解析:问的是股票收益与实体经济的相关性,两者是正相关的,因为实体经济变好,股票收益率增加。正因为两者正相关,所以在经济下滑时,股票不是很好的对冲经济下滑的工具,所以要使风险厌恶的投资者投资股票,就必须给他们更高的风险补偿。

我想的是未来经济差,风险就高,所以要求的对风险的补偿就高,经济和风险补偿之间就是反比关系。但是这里问的是equity return,equity return是指Pt+1-Pt,这个是跟risk premium是反比是么? 所以答案是反向关系。我这么理解对吗?

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年06月04日

同学你好,

不用想这么复杂。

这道题问为什么风险厌恶投资者会要求一个很大的equity risk premium。这是因为当经济差的时候,未来消费被迫下降。但同时equity也会跌(positively correlated),这两者无法形成互补。

换而言之,equity无法对冲消费下滑,不能起到缓释风险的作用。所以就需要有很高的风险补偿。

---------

对比来看,国债作为避险工具,可以对冲经济下滑和消费下降,所以国债是negatively correlated,同时不需要很高的风险补偿。

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