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谢尔比周 · 2018年01月23日

问一道题:NO.PZ201511190100000306 第6小题 [ CFA III ]

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

问题如下图:

    

选项:

A.

B.

C.

解释:


B错在哪里?倒数第二段说 过去很好,将来会回到正常水平。这不就是拿过去推断将来(representative)么?相反,原文并没有说,成功都是因为自己,错误都是因为别人,所以哪里体现出来了self-attribution?谢谢

1 个答案

韩韩_品职助教 · 2018年01月23日

Representative主要是说当遇到新的information进来的时候,会套用以前的模板来分析得出结论。题干中并没有提到有new information. 所以不是representative.

题目中是说收益长期回归均值是典型的gambler’s fallacy, 出现在analyst biases in conducing research的部分。

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