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Charlene🌞 · 2021年05月20日

请问下怎么区分问的是当前阶段特点还是下一阶段的特点?

NO.PZ2018091901000054

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:

Observation 3 The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.

invert.

B.

flatten.

C.

steepen

解释:

C is correct.

The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

解析:

Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。

所以只有C选项正确。

是不是问short term就是当前阶段,in the near term就是下一阶段呢?或者考试还会有其他的表述方式吗?这块我老区分不好,就怕每个阶段的特点都记对了,因为这种小的定语最后选错就太冤啦~~谢谢老师!

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2021年05月20日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


in the near term是应该就是表述下一期的,咱们原版书有原题支持这样的说法。

但是short term不能说就一定是当前阶段。CME该考纲后,只有2年的MOCK作为参考,

我们暂时还没有发现类似的规律。不好意思,这还是得要上了考场具体分析才行。

但是一般题目里面还是会有提示的,比如你看这题有这么一句

starting to reflect contractionary conditions.,提示的就比较明显了。

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