NO.PZ2015121810000034
问题如下：
An analyst, who measures yield as a combination of interest rates and premiums, observes an upward-sloping, default-free government bond nominal yield curve. Which of the following statements is correct?
选项：
A.Interest rates must be expected to rise in the future.
B.Bond risk premiums must be expected to rise in the future.
C.Expectations relating to the future direction of interest rates are indeterminate.
解释：
C is correct.
An upward sloping yield curve may be caused by a combination of expected rate increases and positive bond risk premiums. It may also be a combination of expectations that interest rates will be unchanged in the future coupled with positive bond risk premiums. Lastly, an upward sloping yield curve may actually be a reflection of expected rate cuts that are more than offset by the existence of positive bond risk premiums. So, expectations relating to the future direction of interest rates are indeterminate.
考点：yield curve
解析：
债券市场的收益率可以简单地划分为两部分，一是risk-free interest rate，二是risk premium。如果收益率曲线表现为上升，那么有三种可能：
1.risk-free interest rate和risk premium同时上升;
2.risk-free interest rate上升，risk premium下降，但是前者上升的幅度超过后者下降的幅度;
3.risk-free interest rate下降，risk premium上升，但是前者下降的幅度小于后者上升的幅度。
因此仅观察债券市场的收益率曲线不能判断未来预测利率变化的方向。
这里观察的是default-free government bond的收益率曲线，为什么一直在讨论risk premium的事？
