represntative bias

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：

1）I think Jordan does exhibit representativeness bias as she reassures the team the stragetegy has performed well in the past and that the markest will revert.....

So she classify new info based on past experience that should be rep bias?

过去业绩好推断出将来业绩好,不能证明这人有 representativeness bias

Jordan is not relating the certainty about the future or her decision to hold losing positions back to something she has done or experienced in the past.

你摘录出的句子，我觉得从关键词 reassure 判断，其反映的偏差是过度自信中的 Certainty overconfidence

由于过于肯定自己的判断而赋予结果的概率过高时，就会出现确定性过度自信

关于 representativeness，建议和 Conservatism 放到一起辨析

因为两个偏差，都涉及 base information 和 new information

历年真题中，有两道题考查过：2018-4-B, 2017-5-A

建议同学先把这两道题做一下，感觉一下协会对 representativeness 的考查哈

2）Also I am not sure where does she exhibit illuison of knowledge

同学摘录的句子，反映的就是 illusion of knowledge

People generally do a poor job of estimating probabilities; still, they believe they do it well because they believe that they are smarter and more informed than they actually are. This view is sometimes referred to as the illusion of knowledge bias.

There are two basic types of overconfidence bias rooted in the illusion of knowledge: prediction overconfidence and certainty overconfidence.

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！