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Leviathan · 2021年05月15日

应该算RI4还是RI3

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2018103102000105

问题如下：

Matt is evaluating Company M by using the multistage residual income model. He has forecasted that residual income per share will be constant from year 3 into perpetuity and the short-term ROE is higher than the long-term ROE. He has also estimated the earnings and dividends for the following three years in the following table. What`s the intrinsic value of Company M?

选项：

A.

$27.18

B.

$48.91

C.

$55.43

解释：

C is correct.

考点：Multistage Residual Income Valuation

解析：先计算出每一年的BV

BV1 = BV0 + EPS - Dividends per share = 28.25 + 6.5 - 1.75 = $33，同理可得BV2 = $38.19，BV3 = $43.15

再计算出每一年的RI

RI1 = EPS1 – re*B0 = 6.50-10.9%*28.25 = $3.42，同理可得RI2 = $4.22，RI3 = $2.77

终值的现值:

PV=RI3r×(1+r)3=2.770.109×1.1093=18.63PV=\frac{RI_3}{r\times\left(1+r\right)^3}=\frac{2.77}{0.109\times1.109^3}=18.63

V0=28.25+3.421.109+4.221.1092+2.771.1093+18.63=55.43V_0=28.25+\frac{3.42}{1.109}+\frac{4.22}{1.109^2}+\frac{2.77}{1.109^3}+18.63=55.43

老师课上讲的案例也是FROM YEAR3 TO PERPETUITY，是从RI4去折现出PV3，这样的话，答案就不一样了。
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1 个答案

追风少年_ 品职助教 · 2021年05月15日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


同学，其实最简单的方法就是：

因为从第三年及以后RI保持不变，所以我们可以用RI3/0.109得到第二年年末或者也是第三年年初的PV，然后用这个PV往前折现两年，具体算法28.25+3.42/1.109+4.22/1.109^2+2.77/0.109/1.109^2=55.43。

不知道同学算出来的是哪个答案不一样啊～

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