NO.PZ201904080100002201
问题如下：
1. What is the probability of a new manager outperforming the market within two consecutive years?
选项：
A.0.19
B.0.32
C.0.37
D.0.44
解释：
B is correct.
考点：Conditional Probability
解析：首先定义事件如下：
A1——manager is excellent
A2——manager is average
A3——manager is poor
O2——投资经理连续两年战胜市场
本题求的是P(O2)。题目已知P(A1)=0.2，P(A2)=0.5，P(A3)=0.3 。
P(O2|A1) =0.8*0.8 =0.64 ，P(O2|A2)=0.6*0.6 =0.36，P(O2|A3)=0.2*0.2 =0.04
P(O2A2)+P(O2A3) = P(O2|A1)*P(A1) +P(O2|A2)*P(A2) +P(O2|A3)*P(A3) =0.64*0.2+0.36*0.5+0.04*0.3=0.32
可以解释一下画图法该怎么做吗？谢谢！
