possibility of default 和 hazard rate的区别是什么。感觉好混乱。怎么给了hazard rate又让算pod

问题如下：

Based on Exhibit 1, the probability of Orion defaulting on the bond during the first three years is closest to:

选项：

1.07%.

2.50%.

3.85%.

解释：

A is correct.

Based on Exhibit 1, the probability of survival for the first year is 99.78% (100% minus the 0.22% hazard rate). Similarly, the probability of survival for the second and third years is 99.65% (100% minus the 0.35% hazard rate) and 99.50% (100% minus the 0.50% hazard rate), respectively. Therefore, the probability of survival of the Orion bond through the first three years is equal to (0.9978) × (0.9965) × (0.9950) = 0.9893, and the probability of default sometime during the first three years is 1 – 0.9893, or 1.07%.