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Louis · 2021年05月01日

Long run PPP 和IRP的区别

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward 

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time 

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward 

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


老师,请教一下,这两个考点的结论乍一看是相反的:1. 根据IRP 理论,利率上升的货币长期会贬值;2. 根据PPP理论,由于EM国家yield升高,导致风险补偿增加,货币反而会升值;请问考试时怎么辨别?
2 个答案
已采纳答案

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2021年05月16日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学你好,一般性的话同学要分析题干,如果题干中明确说了譬如波动比较大或者除利率外其他因素,我们就要用到题干中给的公式。如果是单独说明利率的变动,那么我们要利用irp

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2021年05月02日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学你好,针对本体,同学根据这个公式进行答题就好,题目中是em和dm,由其题目中还指明了em的波动率高的情况下。所以我们不能光看利率的影响,也要注意其他risk premium,

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

Louis · 2021年05月14日

谢谢老师,但我不是针对本题,我就想请问能否有个一般性的框架,来统一这两个结论

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