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Louis · 2021年04月21日

长期国债为什么风险更高

NO.PZ2015121810000043

问题如下:

Which of the following financial assets is likely to offer the most effective hedge against bad consumption outcomes?

选项:

A.

Equities.

B.

Short-dated, default-free government bonds.

C.

Long-dated, default-free government bonds.

解释:

B is correct.

The relative certainty about the real payoff from short-dated, default-free government bonds, and therefore the relative certainty about the amount of consumption that the investor will be able to undertake with the payoff, indicates that an investment in such bonds would be a good hedge against bad consumption outcomes.  

考点:default-free interest rates and economic growth

解析:consumption outcomes可以理解为实体经济,所以问的是哪一个可以对冲实体经济衰退。那就是短期国债。

因为经济差,股票表现也差,A错。而相对于长期国债,短期国债风险更小,所以短期国债是比较好的对冲经济衰退的工具。

“而相对于长期国债,短期国债风险更小” - 题目都说了是default-free了,为什么还有风险?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年04月21日

同学你好,

default-free只能说明没有default(欠钱不还)的风险。

可以思考一下这一章里提到国债的地方,首次提到国债(非TIPS)是在介绍inflation risk的时候,所以至少nominal government bond还有inflation和uncertainty of inflation expectation的风险。

------

这道题同样只记忆一个结论就可以:短期国债可以对冲经济下滑的风险,是这章里唯一提到的“good consumption hedge”。

这一章所有的考点都是结论。


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