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Kathy苏苏 · 2021年04月18日

没看懂问题问的是什么

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NO.PZ201511190100000406

问题如下:

Patel’s comment in his risk tolerance questionnaire regarding the Private Wealth Investment Committee fails to recognize which bias?

选项:

A.

Social proof.

B.

Confirmation bias.

C.

Gambler’s fallacy.

解释:

A is correct.

Social proof is a belief in which individuals are biased to follow the beliefs of a group. The structure of Garnier’s Private Wealth Investment Committee indicates that they may be susceptible to a social proof bias. The committee meets to discuss and debate each security and then votes on which will be approved. Committee members may wrongly favor the judgment of others, often without being fully aware that they are doing so. The process of reaching a consensus will usually narrow the range of views. If a group decision process does not encourage private information held by individual committee members to be shared fully with others before a decision is made, the decision may fail to combine the collective wisdom of the group. There is no evidence that this committee encourages private information.

备注:这道题出的不太好,原版书给的答案A。Patel“一旦知道investment committee支持了某项投资,他的风险容忍程度会显著提高”,这句话既反映的是confirmation bias。social proof和herding是同义词,羊群效应,是一种从众的行为。Gambler's fallacy是赌徒谬误,比如连续五次抛出硬币的正面,认为第六次抛出硬币反面的概率非常高,但事实上,抛出反面的概率仍为50%,Patel没有这样的表现。不用纠结选项。

问的是P同学的还是投资委员会的BIAS?是体现出的bias还是没体现出的bias?谢谢老师
1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2021年04月19日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


问的是投资委员会的 Bias,是可能有的 bias,但是 P 同学没有意识到的

题干所说的 Patel 的 comment 对应题干原文 "Patel indicated that his risk tolerance would increase significantly if he knew that an investment had the unanimous support of Garnier’s Private Wealth Investment Committee."

P 同学表示,如果他知道某项投资得到 Garnier 的私人财富投资委员会的一致支持,他的风险承受能力会大大增加。

但是题干后面又提到 "The Private Wealth Investment Committee regularly meets to discuss and debate each security and then votes on which will be approved."

私人财富投资委员会定期召开会议,对每一种证券进行讨论和辩论,然后投票决定哪种证券将被批准。

我理解题目是想考查 How Behavioral Factors Affect Committee Decision Making

行为因素如何影响投资委员会的决策,对应基础班讲义 P146 的知识点

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