NO.PZ201601200500000804
问题如下:
4. What is the NPV (C$ millions) of the optimal set of investment decisions for Society Services including the expansion option?
选项:
A. 6.34.
B. 12.68.
C. 31.03.
解释:
B is correct.
Assume we are at time = 1. The NPV of the expansion (at time 1) if demand is "high" is
The NPV of the expansion (at time 1) if demand is "low" is
The optimal decision is to expand if demand is "high" and not expand if "low."
Because the expansion option is exercised only when its value is positive, which happens 50 percent of the time, the expected value of the expansion project, at time zero, is
The total NPV of the initial project and the expansion project is
NPV = –C$5.663 million + C$18.346 million = C$12.683 million
The optional expansion project, handled optimally, adds sufficient value to make this a positive NPV project.
为何不是在0时刻看,有两种情况- 需求低,只投了190,不追加投资,npv为负
- 追加投资190,需求高,npv为正