NO.PZ201710100100000306
问题如下：
6. If Carlisle’s prediction about the economy of Country #3 is realized, the yield curve in Country #3 will most likely:
选项：
A.remain flat.
B.become upward sloping.
C.become downward sloping.
解释：
B is correct.
The yield curve in Country #3 is currently flat (Exhibit 1), and Carlisle predicts a recession. During a recession, short-term rates tend to be lower because central banks tend to lower their policy rate in these times. However, the impact of monetary policy on longer-term rates will not be as strong because the central bank will usually be expected to bring short-term rates back to normal as the recession recedes. Thus, the slope of the yield curve will likely become upward sloping during the recession.
考点：yield curve
解析：题干问的是 prediction is realized的情况，Carlisle预测的是recession，也就是说recession已经发生了。原收益率曲线是flat，进入recession，央行降息对短期收益率影响更大，因此yield curve向上倾斜。
题目没设定期限，短期肯定是UPLOAD，但是长期（一年以上）又会FLAT 或者DOWNLOAD 吧，看的时候也纠结了下。请问怎么判断，谢谢
