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孙际尧 · 2021年04月13日

B

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NO.PZ201902210100000101

问题如下:

Which of Winslow’s statements about carry trades is correct?

选项:

A.

Statement I

B.

Statement II

C.

Statement III

解释:

A is correct.

Carry trades may or may not involve maturity mis-matches. Intra-market carry trades typically do involve different maturities, but inter-market carry trades frequently do not, especially if the currency is not hedged.

B is incorrect. Carry trades may involve only one yield curve, as is the case for intra-market trades. In addition, if two curves are involved they need not have different slopes provided there is a difference in the level of yields between markets.

C is incorrect. Inter-market carry trades do not, in general, break even if each yield curve goes to its forward rates. Intra-market trades will break even if the curve goes to the forward rates because, by construction of the forward rates, all points on the curve will earn the "first-period" rate (that is, the rate for the holding period being considered). Inter-market trades need not break even unless the "first-period" rate is the same in the two markets. If the currency exposure is not hedged, then breaking even also requires that there be no change in the currency exchange rate.

B选项如果是inter carry trade是不是就对了

2 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年04月20日

如果平行怎么保证duration neutral呢,不是说在steep融短投长(+duration)在flatten融长投短(减duration)


对的,如果两国的利率曲线是平行的,那其实做不了那种特殊的Duration-neutral, currency-neutral的Carry trade。


因为两国的收益率曲线平行,那其实息差是一样的,净收益最后就是0了。


例如,如下图,在B国做借1-year投5-year息差是2%,在A国做借5-year投1-year息差是-2%,最终这个Currency-neutral, duration-neutral的净收益就是0了。





除了这种特殊的Currency-neutral, Duration-neutral的Carry trade,剩下情况,就算两国利率曲线是平行的,Carry trade也有收益。


如下图,AB两国的利率曲线平行,A国5-year利率是3%,B国5-year是8%,借A 5-year, 投B 5-year,依然有Carry trade收益。



这个Statement 2说:Carry trade需要两条利率曲线的斜率不同,那从前面的分析可知,这个不一定,普通的Carry trade就算利率曲线平行也依然可以做息差。

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年04月14日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


B选项如果是inter carry trade是不是就对了


不是的。改了之后Statement 2依然错误。


按提问的说法,Statemen 2改成:Inter-market Carry trades require two yield curves with substantially different slopes.


这个说法也是错误的。因为Inter-market carry trade,对两个国家利率曲线的斜率没有啥要求,只要两国存在息差即可,就算两条曲线的斜率一模一样,但他们是平行的,那就存在息差。


首先,如果两国的利率曲线斜率不一样,我们知道,两国间一定存在息差,那做Carry trade一定有息差可图。


那下来,如果两国的利率曲线斜率一样时,能否做Carry trade呢?以下图为例:


红线是A国的利率曲线;蓝线是B国的利率曲线;我们发现,这两条利率曲线是完全平行的。也就是说,他们有相同的Slopes;

但是,两国之间存在着明显的息差,所以依然是可以做Inter-market carry trade的。



这道题B选项的答案,也告知了我们两国间做Carry trade,对斜率是否相同没有要求,只要有息差就能做Carry trade:


if two curves are involved they need not have different slopes provided there is a difference in the level of yields between markets.

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