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金融民工阿聪 · 2021年04月13日

the terms of trade而非Trade balances下降。如果是Trade balances大幅下降，表明危机已经发生，就不是危机的信号了。

  1. CFA II
  2. Economics Analysis

NO.PZ2018091706000064

问题如下：

Beauregard has concerns about the firm’s experiences during currency crises. She recalls reading a study produced by the IMF that an impending currency crisis is signaled by numerous economic variables. She makes the following statements with regard to some of these variables:

1. Trade balances exhibit substantial decline prior to the crisis.

2. A country has distinctive economic growth patterns ahead of the crisis.

3. Inflation is significantly higher in the pre-crisisperiod.

Which of Beauregard’s statements regarding a currency crisis is the most accurate?


选项：

A.

Statement 3

B.

Statement 2

C.

Statement 1

解释：

Statement 3 is the most accurate. Inflation tends to be significantly higher in pre-crisisperiods compared with tranquil periods.

解析：A选项最准确的。与平静时期相比，危机前时期的通胀率往往要高得多。

C选项错误，the terms of trade而非Trade balances下降。如果是Trade balances大幅下降，表明危机已经发生，就不是危机的信号了。

B选项错误，因为危机发生前，经济不会有什么额外的增长。

问题：

1、terms of trade定义是什么？它下降是指什么下降？交易量下降？进口下降还是出口下降？

2.Trade balances定义是什么？它下降是指什么下降？交易量下降？进口下降还是出口下降？

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1 个答案

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2021年04月13日

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：


同学你好，本部分考查的是WARNING SIGNS OF A CURRENCY CRISIS

terms of trade可以理解为出口/进口，是一个ratio。通常货币危机前他是会恶化的。

trade balance 就是出口减进口。

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