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sherry_lee · 2021年04月12日

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NO.PZ201902210100000103

问题如下:

Among the carry trades available in the US, Euro, and UK markets, the highest expected return for the USD-denominated portfolio over the next 6 months is closest to:

选项:

A.

0.275%.

B.

0.85%.

C.

0.90%.

解释:

B is correct.

The highest potential return, 0.85%, reflects borrowing USD for 6 months and buying the UK 5-year bond. The carry component of the expected return is actually a loss of 0.15% [= (1.10% – 1.40%)/2], but this is more than offset by the 1% expected appreciation of GBP versus USD. A much higher carry component +0.90% = (1.95% – 0.15%)/2 could be obtained by borrowing for 6 months in EUR to buy the US 5-year note, but that advantage would be more than offset by the expected 1% loss from depreciation of the USD (long) against the Euro (short).

A is incorrect because a higher expected return of 0.85% can be obtained. This answer, +0.275% [= (1.95% – 1.40%)/2], is the highest carry available over the next 6 months within the US market itself (an intra-market carry trade).

C is incorrect. This answer (+0.90%) is the highest potential carry component of return but ignores the impact of currency exposure (being long the depreciating USD and short the appreciating Euro).

这个carry trade在题目哪里?没看到要买5年期英镑债券的啊

1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年04月13日

这个carry trade在题目哪里?没看到要买5年期英镑债券的啊


这道题是给了表1里的利率数据, 然后让我们在UK/US/EUR的利率里面,找到最优的Carry trade策略。这里面的所有利率都有可能组成Carry trade策略。


所以,实际上本题是需要我们自己判断要找哪两个利率做Carry trade才能有最高的收益,需要我们自己判断出来最优的Carry trade是借USD 6-month、投UK 5-Year的。


选项B的收益:0.85%,就是借USD 6个月、投资UK 5-year的Carry trade。


下面算一下选项B的收益:


借USD 6个月、投资UK 5-year的息差收益是:( 1.10% - 1.40%)/2 = -0.15%


由于是借USD,投资了UK,最终需要把UK的收益换回USD,还掉USD的"本息和"之后才算是Carry trade的净收益。那由于预期USD相对EUR(UK)贬值1%,那最终将UK换成USD换汇带来的收益为1%。


所以Carry trade的净收益是:息差收益 + 汇率变动的收益 = - 0.15% + 1% = 0.85%


关于如何判断借USD 6-month、投UK 5-year是最优的Carry trade,可以参考之前的回复,如果有疑问我们可以再讨论:

https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/65988