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古都山城 · 2021年04月11日

B选项

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201512020300000701

问题如下:

With respect to forecasting annual gross revenue, Maxwell’s best course of action to deal with the inputs problem should be to:

选项:

A.

simulate the ECI and the CSI independently

B.

build the correlation explicitly into the simulation.

C.

estimate revenues using the ECI only and eliminate the CSI from the simulation.

解释:

B is correct. Both the nightly room rate and the occupancy rate are dependent on inputs, ECI and CSI, which are correlated. If there are correlated inputs, there are two solutions to this problem. One is to allow only one of the two inputs to vary, emphasizing the one with the larger impact. The second solution is to the build the correlation explicitly into the simulation. Simulating ECI and CSI independently is not a remedy for the correlated inputs problem. Further, the relation between CSI and the occupancy rate is stronger than that between ECI and nightly room rates, which suggests that CSI should be kept if one of the two inputs is to be removed from the simulation.

A is incorrect because the two input variables, ECI and CSI, are correlated, and simulating them independently is not appropriate. The remedies include dropping one of the probabilistic inputs or building the correlation into the simulation explicitly.

C is incorrect because the relation between CSI and the occupancy rate is stronger than that between ECI and nightly room rates, which suggests that CSI should be kept if one of the two inputs is to be removed from the simulation.

老师您好,请问B选项是在哪个知识点讲到的,谢谢
1 个答案
已采纳答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年04月12日

同学你好,

B选项的意思是在做simulation的过程中,可以把“correlation”直接当成一个变量和其他的变量一起做simulation。

这一章的课后题基础班全部讲过,全线班的同学直接听讲解即可。

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