NO.PZ201512300100000906
问题如下：
6. Dobson is wondering what the consequences would be if the duration of the first stage was assumed to be 11 years instead of 8, with all the other assumptions/estimates remaining the same. Considering this change, which of the following is true?
选项：
A.In the second approach, the proportion of the total value of the stock represented by the second stage would not change.
B.The total value estimated using the third approach would increase.
C.Using this new assumption and the first approach will lead Dobson to conclude that the stock is overvalued.
解释：
B is correct.
If the extraordinary growth rate of 14 percent is expected to continue for a longer duration, the stock’s value would increase. Choice A is false because given that the first stage is longer (11 years instead of 8), the terminal value is being calculated at a later point in time. So, its present value would be smaller. Moreover, the first stage has more years and contributes more to the total value. Overall, the proportion contributed by the second stage would be smaller. Choice C is false because the intrinsic value of the stock would be higher and the appropriate conclusion would be that the stock would be undervalued to a greater extent based on the first approach.
问一下A，在方法二中，乘数法，P/E=（1-b)(1+g)/(r-g)。这个等式可以反求出(1+g)/(r-g)。在通过V11=D11(1+g)/(r-g)，可以算出V11，再往前折现，但是，怎么判断是变大还是变小呢？
