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那小谁 · 2021年03月27日

问一道题：NO.PZ201512300100000604 第4小题 [ CFA II ]

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

* 问题详情，请 查看题干

问题如下：

4. Based on Exhibit 4, Archway’s forecasted gross profit margin for 2015 is closest to:

选项：

A.

62.7%.

B.

67.0%.

C.

69.1%.

解释：

C is correct.

The calculation of Archway’s gross profit margin for 2015, which reflects the industry-wide 8% inflation on cost of goods sold (COGS), is calculated as follows:

Revenue growth = (1 + Price increase for revenue) × (1 + Volume growth) - 1

Revenue growth = (1.05) × (0.97)  -  1 = 1.85%

COGS increase = (1 + Price increase for COGS) × (1 + Volume growth) - 1

COGS increase = (1.08) × (0.97) -  1 = 4.76%

Forecasted revenue = Base revenue × Revenue growth increase

Forecasted revenue = 100 × 1.0185 = 101.85

Forecasted COGS = Base COGS × COGS increase

Forecasted COGS = 30 × 1.0476 = 31.43

Forecasted gross profit = Forecasted revenue - Forecasted COGS

Forecasted gross profit = 101.85 - 31.43 = 70.42

Forecasted gross profit margin = Forecasted gross profit/Forecasted revenue

Forecasted gross profit margin = 70.42/101.85 = 69.14%

老师 我认为答案有误 COGS是SALES的30%，在2015年，sales长为了101.85，那么COGS不应该是用101.85*30%*（1+8%）吗？为什么用30？30是基于2014年的sales算出来的COGS吧？我的想法哪里出问题了吗？
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1 个答案

Debrah_品职答疑助手 · 2021年03月28日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


COGS是sales的30%，针对的是2014年。我们现在是要预测2015年的gross profit margin。自然不能用2014年的数据。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来，我们正在朝着它而去，加油！

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NO.PZ201512300100000604 ForecasteCOGS = Base COGS × COGS increase ForecasteCOGS = 30 × 1.0476 = 31.43

2021-12-16 23:15 1 · 回答

NO.PZ201512300100000604 老师这里的COGS为什么要这么计算，题目里面Archway’s cost of goo solw30% of sales.不是说COGS是sales的百分比，算出来sales直接乘以比例就可以了呀

2021-11-25 15:22 1 · 回答

NO.PZ201512300100000604 [（1-3%）*（1+5%）*sales - 30%*sales*(1+8%)*(1-3%) ] / （1+5%）*（1-3%）*sales，分子分母约去sales计算出答案69.14%，老师好 分母打亮部分这里 为什么不用再乘以（1+5%） 谢谢。

2021-11-22 15:01 2 · 回答

NO.PZ201512300100000604 老师 为什么计算COGS的时候不能从sales-base出发去推导 也就是为什么不是（1+5%）（1-3%）*30%（1+8%）？

2021-07-08 11:06 1 · 回答

67.0%. 69.1%. C is correct. The calculation of Archway’s gross profit margin for 2015, whireflects the instry-wi 8% inflation on cost of goo sol(COGS), is calculatefollows: Revenue growth = (1 + Priincrease for revenue) × (1 + Volume growth) - 1 Revenue growth = (1.05) × (0.97)  -  1 = 1.85% COGS increase = (1 + Priincrease for COGS) × (1 + Volume growth) - 1 COGS increase = (1.08) × (0.97) -  1 = 4.76% Forecasterevenue = Base revenue × Revenue growth increase Forecasterevenue = 100 × 1.0185 = 101.85 ForecasteCOGS = Base COGS × COGS increase ForecasteCOGS = 30 × 1.0476 = 31.43 Forecastegross profit = Forecasterevenue - ForecasteCOGS Forecastegross profit = 101.85 - 31.43 = 70.42 Forecastegross profit margin = Forecastegross profit/Forecasterevenue Forecastegross profit margin = 70.42/101.85 = 69.14%老师，我刚才问的问题自己想通了，他计算COGS的时候，不是sales-based

2021-03-27 11:50 1 · 回答