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Ciser · 2021年03月27日

请问老师.Yield curve steepen时,而且是平行上移+steepen这种组合变化

NO.PZ2019103001000052

问题如下:

Silvia Abram and Walter Edgarton are analysts with Cefrino Investments, which sponsors the Cefrino Sovereign Bond Fund (the Fund). Abram and Edgarton recently attended an investment committee meeting where interest rate expectations for the next 12 months were discussed. The Fund’s mandate allows its duration to fluctuate ±0.30 per year from the benchmark duration. The Fund’s duration is currently equal to its benchmark. Although the Fund is presently invested entirely in annual coupon sovereign bonds, its investment policy also allows investments in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and call options on government bond futures. The Fund’s current holdings of on-the-run bonds are presented in Exhibit 1.


Over the next 12 months, Abram expects a stable yield curve; however, Edgarton expects a steepening yield curve, with short-term yields rising by 1.00% and long-term yields rising by more than 1.00%.

Based on Edgarton’s expectation for the yield curve over the next 12 months, the Fund’s return relative to the benchmark would most likely increase by:

选项:

A.

riding the yield curve

B.

implementing a barbell structure.

C.

shortening the portfolio duration relative to the benchmark.

解释:

C is correct.

If interest rates rise and the yield curve steepens as Edgarton expects, then shortening the Fund’s duration from a neutral position to one that is shorter than the benchmark will improve the portfolio’s return relative to the benchmark. This duration management strategy will avoid losses from long-term interest rate increases.

怎么判断是bullet还是barbell策略哪个更好?平行上移是barbell,而steepen是bullet?
1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年03月27日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


怎么判断是bullet还是barbell策略哪个更好?平行上移是barbell,而steepen是bullet?


是的,这种定性的分析,有可能会产生冲突。


如果有冲突的时候,只能是用计算的办法了,或者题目题型比较特殊会有Benchmark可以参考比较。


所以,如果要用表格下面的这种定性分析,就一定需要保证收益率曲线的改变只有一种,就是已经拆解到最小单位变动了,例如就真的只有Parallel shift or 就真的只有Flattening,不是那种复合的收益率曲线变动


下面具体说一下:


出现复合的收益率曲线变动时,如(Parallel shift + 一个非平行移动),如果要用定性判断,一定是不能有冲突的。

如果有冲突,例如提问里的平行上移+Steepen,平行上移是Barbell最优,Steepening是Bullet最优,这种咱们就很难定性判断那种影响力更强。

出现这种冲突的情况,就转向用计算的办法,或者看看题目有没有Benchmark可比较。






像原版书下面这道题,这里的Curve shift,就是平行上移1.00%,然后5-year、10-year、30-year再额外上升,所以属于平行上移+Steepening;

通过Barbell/Bullet/laddered上面表格的结论分析,就会有冲突。


那这道题是让选出Current portfolio、Portfolio 1与Portfolio 2,在经历这样的曲线移动后,他们中间哪个组合的表现会更好,那我们可以以Current portfolio为Benchmark,然后进行判断。


在5-year、10-year, 30-year利率变动对组合的影响上,由于Portfolio 2的10-year partial PVBP比Current portfolio更低,所以Portfolio 2的表现会更好(比current portfolio要好);


而Portfolio 1的Partial PVBP相对更大,所以表现会更差一点(比Current Portfolio表现要差)。一个比Current好,一个比Current差,综合来看就是Portfolio 2表现更好。


当然上面这种定性判断,有可能会出现错误,尤其是几个组合间的Partial PVBP差距不是很明显的时候。


出现这种情况时,就直接计算,例如,30-year利率上升1.75%(175bps),对Current portfolio的价值影响是(假设Current portfolio的面值是100,000):


175 bps × 0.0394/100 × 100,000 (除以100是因为这里的Partial PVBP是面值为100债券的Partial PVBP,除以100先转换成每1元的Partial PVBP)


计算的一般通式是:


Predicted change (某个利率点位变动,对组合价值的影响)= Portfolio par amount × partial PVBP × (curve shift in bps)/100


根据同样的办法,可以算出来10-year. 5-year. 3-year 1-year利率的改变,对Current portfolio价值的影响;

然后所有利率点位的影响加总,就是这条收益率曲线的非平行移动对组合的影响。


这种方法就非常准确了,只要数据代入正确就不会有错。

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