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哩哩 · 2021年03月24日

不明白,这个答案怎么出来的呢

NO.PZ2020010304000013

问题如下:

Suppose that the annual profit of two firms, one an incumbent (Big Firm, X1) and the other a startup (Small Firm, X2), can be described with the following probability matrix:

What is the conditional distribution of Small Firm’s profits if Big Firm has a $100M profit year?

选项:

解释:

The conditional distribution is just the row corresponding to USD 100M normalized to sum to 1. The conditional is different from the marginal, which is another demonstration that the profits are not independent.

不明白,这个答案怎么出来的呢

2 个答案

wuzx · 2021年07月20日

为什么要把各项占比同比例增大?

袁园_品职助教 · 2021年03月24日

这是求的条件分布,所以应该在Big firm X1 = 100M的条件下,再去算它的概率。所以应该把X1=100时,X2取各值的概率,同比例增大,使得新的四个概率之和为100% 。拿19.5%举例:3.09%/(3.09%+6.58%+6.16%)=19.5%

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