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JustJuve · 2021年03月15日

关于riding the yield curve

NO.PZ2019103001000052

问题如下:

Silvia Abram and Walter Edgarton are analysts with Cefrino Investments, which sponsors the Cefrino Sovereign Bond Fund (the Fund). Abram and Edgarton recently attended an investment committee meeting where interest rate expectations for the next 12 months were discussed. The Fund’s mandate allows its duration to fluctuate ±0.30 per year from the benchmark duration. The Fund’s duration is currently equal to its benchmark. Although the Fund is presently invested entirely in annual coupon sovereign bonds, its investment policy also allows investments in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and call options on government bond futures. The Fund’s current holdings of on-the-run bonds are presented in Exhibit 1.


Over the next 12 months, Abram expects a stable yield curve; however, Edgarton expects a steepening yield curve, with short-term yields rising by 1.00% and long-term yields rising by more than 1.00%.

Based on Edgarton’s expectation for the yield curve over the next 12 months, the Fund’s return relative to the benchmark would most likely increase by:

选项:

A.

riding the yield curve

B.

implementing a barbell structure.

C.

shortening the portfolio duration relative to the benchmark.

解释:

C is correct.

If interest rates rise and the yield curve steepens as Edgarton expects, then shortening the Fund’s duration from a neutral position to one that is shorter than the benchmark will improve the portfolio’s return relative to the benchmark. This duration management strategy will avoid losses from long-term interest rate increases.

是不是应该这样理解这个策略的应用:

riding the yield curve策略使用前提是收益率曲线必须stable;

在stable的基础上,收益率曲线越steepen,策略收益越高?

也就是说,两条stable的曲线之中,更steepen的那条riding the yield curve策略获得更大收益;

而不是说,某曲线本身变得更steepen了,这条曲线上riding the yield curve策略比之前效果更好了,而是这个策略根本就不能用了。

是这么理解么?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年03月15日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


riding the yield curve策略使用前提是收益率曲线必须stable;

在stable的基础上,收益率曲线越steepen,策略收益越高?

也就是说,两条stable的曲线之中,更steepen的那条riding the yield curve策略获得更大收益;

而不是说,某曲线本身变得更steepen了,这条曲线上riding the yield curve策略比之前效果更好了,而是这个策略根本就不能用了。

是这么理解么?


是的,完全正确。以上其实就是Riding the yield curve的精髓。


我们预期收益率曲线稳定(明年不会变),且收益率曲线是Upward-sloping。

所以,我们就知道,今年10年期利率是10%,9年期利率是8%;明年的10年期利率还是10%,9年期利率还是8%。

那这样的话,今天我们投资1支10年期债券,买入价是按10%的利率折现的;等1年过去了,这支债券变成了9年期,由于预期Stable,我们知道9年期的利率还是8%,那此时,这支债券的折现率降到了8%。折现率下降,债券的价格上升,所以在第9年的债券价格比期初买入价高,我们赚取Capital gain。

我们预期曲线Stable,所以这个策略,我们在期初就已经预期到这个价差收益了。


这种策略就是在收益率曲线Stable时,债券在收益率曲线上,由长期逐渐滑落至短期。如果收益率曲线越陡峭,那期末、期初折现率的差异就越大,我们赚取的价差就越大。


而如果收益率曲线变的更Steepen的话,那不用做Riding the yield curve,这是预期利率曲线变化,我们直接调整对应的Duration,可以赚取更高的收益。


所以,riding the yield curve是预期收益率曲线不变时,对应的投资策略。

而如果预期收益率曲线变得Steepen,这种是预期利率变动,预期利率变动有他对应的策略。

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