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蓝阿白 · 2021年03月14日

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Bader expects the equity market in Country C (an emerging market) to become more fully integrated with the global market while Country A (a developed market) remains highly integrated. All else being equal, the Singer–Terhaar model implies that when a market becomes more globally integrated (segmented), its required return should decline (rise). As prices adjust to a lower (higher) required return, the market should deliver an even higher (lower) return than was previously expected or required by the market. Therefore, the allocation to markets that are moving toward integration should be increased. If a market is moving toward integration, its increased allocation will come at the expense of markets that are already highly integrated. This will typically entail a shift from developed markets to emerging markets. Bader then uses the Singer–Terhaar model and the final shrinkage-estimated VCV matrix to determine the equilibrium expected equity returns for all international asset classes by country. Three of the markets under consideration are located in Country A (developed market), Country B (emerging market), and Country C (emerging market). Bader projects that in relation to the global market, the equity market in Country A will remain highly integrated, the equity market in Country B will become more segmented, and the equity market in Country C will become more fully integrated. Q. Based on expectations for changes in integration with the global market, all else being equal, the Singer–Terhaar model implies that Bader should shift capital from Country A to: only Country B. only Country C. both Countries B and C.
1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2021年03月15日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


巴德预计,C国(新兴市场)的股票市场将更加全面地与全球市场整合,而A国(发达市场)的股票市场将保持高度整合。在其他条件相同的情况下,Singer-Terhaar模型表明,当一个市场变得更加全球一体化(细分)时,它的要求回报应该下降(上升)。当价格调整到一个更低(更高)的要求回报时,市场应该提供一个比先前预期或要求更高(更低)的回报。因此,应该增加对正在走向一体化的市场的股票分配。如果一个市场正在走向一体化,其增加的配置将以牺牲已经高度一体化的市场为代价。这通常需要从发达市场转向新兴市场。然后,Bader使用Singer-Terhaar模型和shrinkage-estimated的VCV矩阵,按国家来决定所有国际资产类别的均衡股权回报水平。考虑中的三个市场分别位于A国(发达市场)、B国(新兴市场)和C国(新兴市场)。贝德预计,就全球市场而言,A国股权市场将保持高度整合,B国股权市场将更加细分,C国股权市场将更加全面整合。基于对与全球市场整合变化的预期,在其他条件都相同的情况下,Singer-Terhaar模型显示,巴德应该将资本从A国转移到:只有B国,只有C国,B和C国。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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