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little_back · 2021年03月12日

请问老师,为什么是Macaulay duration,不是modified duration?什么时候用modified duration?

NO.PZ2019103001000031

问题如下:

Doug Kepler, the newly hired chief financial officer for the City of Radford, asks the deputy financial manager, Hui Ng, to prepare an analysis of the current investment portfolio and the city’s current and future obligations. The city has multiple liabilities of different amounts and maturities relating to the pension fund, infrastructure repairs, and various other obligations.

Ng observes that the current fixed-income portfolio is structured to match the duration of each liability. Previously, this structure caused the city to access a line of credit for temporary mismatches resulting from changes in the term structure of interest rates

Kepler asks Ng for different strategies to manage the interest rate risk of the city’s fixed-income investment portfolio against one-time shifts in the yield curve. Ng considers two different strategies:

Strategy 1: Immunization of the single liabilities using zero-coupon bonds held to maturity

Strategy 2: Immunization of the single liabilities using coupon-bearing bonds while continuously matching duration.

Which duration measure should be matched when implementing Strategy 2?

选项:

A.

Key rate

B.

Modified

C.

Macaulay

解释:

C is correct.

An investor having an investment horizon equal to the bond’s Macaulay duration is effectively protected, or immunized, from the first change in interest rates, because price and coupon reinvestment effects offset for either higher or lower rates.

请问老师,为什么是Macaulay duration,不是modified duration?什么时候用modified duration?

2 个答案
已采纳答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年03月14日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


为什么是Macaulay duration,不是modified duration?


单期负债匹配这里,都用Macaulay duration,不会使用到Modified duration。


这道题的题干虽然说是对多期负债做免疫。但是,Strategy 2是将这个多期负债打散,当成了多个单期负债,然后对这些单期负债一一做匹配,最终的结果就是,所有的单期负债都匹配了,这个多期负债也就匹配好了。


题干说他们是对这个多期负债里面的Each liability做匹配:

Ng observes that the current fixed-income portfolio is structured to match the duration of each liability.


然后看Strategy 2的描述是:Immunization of single liabilities;这里是Single liabilities,用了复数,所以是对多个单期负债做了Immunization:

Immunization of the single liabilities using coupon-bearing bonds 


所以,Strategy 2是单期负债匹配的条件,应该选Macaulay duration。


另外,本题将多期负债打散成多个单期负债,然后对Each liability做匹配的这种方法,虽然也可以用来匹配多期负债,但是,该方法不是我们教材里面讲的Multiple liabilities的免疫方法。我们Multiple liabilities的免疫方法是把负债当成一个整体,让资产的BPV=负债的BPV,让资产的Convexity>负债的Convexity。


平时题目问多期负债匹配的条件,就回复教材的匹配方法即可(BPV的要求,Convexity的要求,PV的要求)。这道题Strategy 2的方法知道他存在就行。


什么时候用modified duration?

在匹配负债这里,不会用到Modified duration。


单期负债匹配看Macaulay duration:资产Macaulay duration = 负债Macaulay duration

多期负债匹配看BPV(Money duration/PVBP):资产BPV=负债BPV;

而BPV = Modified duration(or Effective duration)× market value × 0.0001,不过在匹配这里,基本上不会让我们计算BPV,题目会直接给。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

little_back · 2021年03月14日

还想追问老师一个问题 : 为什么两个债券duration相同,coupon越大,需要越分散,其convexity越大呢?

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年03月14日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


为什么两个债券duration相同,coupon越大,需要越分散,其convexity越大呢?


从Macaulay duration的角度理解。Macaulay duration是一个平均时间的概念,衡量债券现金流发生的平均时间。

比如,一个债券的期限Maturity=12,他的Macaulay duration = 10,代表我们投资这支12年期的债券,平均来看,收到他所有的现金流需要10年。

之所以现金流发生的平均时间Macaulay duration=10小于债券的期限12,是因为债券前期每年会收到Coupon现金流,他们发生的时间在第12年以前,小于12,因此会使得现金流发生平均数Macaulay duration小于债券期限12。

所以一般附息债券,他的现金流发生时间平均数Macaulay duration小于到期日Maturity。


有了以上的概念,就比较好理解两支债券的对比了。

如果两支债券的Macaulay duration一样大,意味着平均而言,这两支债券收到现金流所用的时间是一样的。

例如,债券A与债券B,他们的Macaulay duration=10,投资这两支债券,平均来看,收回现金流的时间均为10年。


如果债券A的Coupon rate更大,那就意味着,和债券B相比,在早期,债券A有更大笔、更高权重的现金流收回。

由于早期会有更多的现金流发生,这会使得债券A加速回收现金流,会拉低平均数,会使得债券A的Macaulay duration小于10,小于债券B的Macaulay duration。

那为了让债券A的Macaulay duration依然保持在10,债券A的最后一笔本金现金流发生的时间必须要更晚,必须要大于债券B的最后一笔现金流,这样才能使得债券A的平均数Mac.Duration又变大重回10,才能保证债券A与债券B的平均数一致。


由于债券A的最后一笔本金现金流发生时间更晚,就导致债券A的现金流比债券B的现金流更加分散。在其他条件一致的情况下,现金流的分散程度(dispersion)与债券的Convexity成正比。可参考以下公式:



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2022-03-24 20:01 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2019103001000031 能否下KEY RATE RATION不选的原因,谢谢!

2021-12-30 12:01 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2019103001000031 MofieMacaul C is correct. investor having investment horizon equto the bons Macaulration is effectively protecte or immunize from the first change in interest rates, because priancoupon reinvestment effects offset for either higher or lower rates. immunization的2个条件,PVa=PVL,=,是为了hee pririsk和ri risk带来的价格变动的影响,所以不是应该用的mify ration吗?mofy ration一样,这也利率变动,asset和liab的price变动一样,这也也能继续match了。为什么是mration,平均还款期呢?

2021-12-11 14:46 2 · 回答

NO.PZ2019103001000031 这道题我懂了,但是这两策略有什么区别呀

2021-09-16 06:15 2 · 回答

NO.PZ2019103001000031 MofieMacaul C is correct. investor having investment horizon equto the bons Macaulration is effectively protecte or immunize from the first change in interest rates, because priancoupon reinvestment effects offset for either higher or lower rates. 如果前者匹配,后者不也一样匹配吗?毕竟就差个1/(1+y)

2021-04-20 18:51 18 · 回答