risk-neutral default probabilities 在基础班讲义哪里？找不到了

问题如下：

Which of Kreming’s observations regarding actual and risk-neutral default probabilities is correct?

选项：

Only Observation 1

Only Observation 2

Both Observation 1 and Observation 2

解释：

B is correct. Observation 1 is incorrect, but Observation 2 is correct. The actual default probabilities do not include the default risk premium associated with the uncertainty in the timing of the possible default loss. The observed spread over the yield on a risk-free bond in practice does include liquidity and tax considerations, in addition to credit risk.