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Anny SUN · 2021年03月10日

问一道题:NO.PZ2015121810000029 [ CFA II ]

问题如下:

Default-free real interest rates tend to be relatively high in countries with high expected economic growth because investors:

选项:

A.

increase current borrowing.

B.

have high inter-temporal rates of substitution.

C.

have high uncertainty about levels of future consumption.

解释:

A is correct.

The average level of default-free real interest rates is positively related to the expected rate of growth of the underlying economy and also to the volatility of economic growth in the economy. During periods of high expected economic growth, investors are less worried about the future and their consumption abilities in the futurethat is, their inter-temporal rate of substitution is low, so they borrow more today and save less. Other things being equal, this means that the average level of default-free real interest rates (the reciprocal of the rate of substitution, see Equation 4) should be higher in an economy with high growth, and lower in an economy with lower, more stable growth.  

考点:Real default-free interest rates

解析: economic growth增加,投资者的收入会增加,不担心未来没钱,所以储蓄减少,增加消费,所以信贷消费也会增加, current borrowing增加, A正确。current borrowing增加推动利率上涨,所以 default-free real interest rates 较高。

B,结论:经济增速变快,m减小。因为m=MUt+s/MUt, 经济变好,将来收入增加,投资者更有钱了,所以将来消费的爽度减小,MUt+s减小,所以m减小。

C,经济好的时候,将来消费的不确定是比较低的。因为经济好,投资者不担心将来没钱,所以会减少储蓄,增加消费,因此将来消费的不确定性低。

没有在讲义里找到关于current borrowings 增加的内容啊
1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年03月10日

同学你好,

增加current borrowing是可以根据题干信息直接推断出来的。

题干说明“....in countries with high expected economic growth”即这个国家经济发展很好。在这种情况下,人们将来会更有钱,所以现在愿意消费,而且愿意借钱消费,因为不担心未来还不起。所以current borrowing是增加的。

但这道题并不需要这么麻烦。利率就是借钱的价格(the cost of borrowing money),如果利率很高,说明是有更多的人借钱了,直接选择A即可。