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一只雪梨 · 2021年03月06日

请问什么叫higher forward premium,有些难以理解

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201601050100000303

问题如下:

3. Which of the following market developments would be most favorable for Subscriber 3's trading plan?

选项:

A.

A narrower interest rate differential.

B.

A higher forward premium for INR/USD.

C.

Higher volatility in INR/USD spot rate movements.

解释:

B is correct.

Subscriber 3's carry trade strategy is equivalent to trading the forward rate bias, based on the historical evidence that the forward rate is not the center of the distribution for the spot rate. Applying this bias involves buying currencies selling at a forward discount and selling currencies trading at a forward premium. So a higher forward premium on the lower yielding currencythe USD, the base currency in the INR/USD quotewould effectively reflect a more profitable trading opportunity. That is, a higher premium for buying or selling the USD forward is associated with a lower US interest rate compared to India. This would mean a wider interest rate differential in favor of Indian instruments, and hence potentially more carry trade profits.

A is incorrect because Subscriber 3's carry trade strategy depends on a wide interest rate differential between the high-yield country (India) and the low-yield country (the United States). The differential should be wide enough to compensate for the unhedged currency risk exposure.

C is incorrect because a guide to the carry trade‘s riskiness is the volatility of spot rates on the involved currencies, with rapid movements in exchange rates often associated with a panicked unwinding of carry trades. All things being equal, higher volatility is worse for carry trades.

请问什么叫higher forward premium,有些难以理解

1 个答案

Hertz_品职助教 · 2021年03月07日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


同学你好~

Higher forward premium 或者表述为Larger forward premium,都是两国的利差变得更大的意思,这个表述我们要熟悉一下的哈~

首先这是一个carry trade策略,这个策略只有在两国利差大且汇率波动率小的时候收益才高。所以A选项表述的更窄的利差C选项表述的波动率更高都是不能选的。B选项就是利差变大的意思所以我们应该选B。我给你贴一道同类型的,同一种考法的题目,你看一下,然后再看一下对应的中文解析,我觉得这个类型的题目应该就会完全掌握啦

题干:Sophia, a British analyst, finds that there is a persistent trend that the UK interest rate will be low and Chinese interest rate will be high. She decides to borrow in GBP and invest in CNY without currency hedging. Which of the following factor will benefit mostly regarding her trading strategy?

A. the interest rate difference becomes narrower

B. a larger forward premium for CNY/GBP.

C. the volatility in CNY/GBP exchange rate becomes higher.

答案选B。

解析:考点:Carry trade

 

解析:Sophia先从利率低的国家(UK)借钱,再把这些借来的前投资到利率高的国家(China),从而赚取利息差,这描述的是carry trade的投资策略。利差越大,汇率波动越小,carry trade的收益越高,A和C都可以排除。

 

B选项,Sophia作为英国分析师,低利率货币GBP本身trade at forward premium ,因此CNY/GBP?也是trade at forward premium,由于现在有更高的forward premium,那么利差就会更大,所以B正确。为何低利率货币会trade at forward premium,因为目前利率低,钱会大量涌入利率高的国家,但是将来钱从高利率国家撤走时会抛售该国家货币,抛售导致高利率国家货币贬值,那么相对的低利率国家货币升值,所以trade at premium

(你可以对比一下这两个题目,所以这种表述我们要熟悉起来,通过这道题的解析应该会理解为什么有这种表述啦~)

----------------------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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