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蓝阿白 · 2021年03月03日

potential inter-market carry trades?

Given two upward-sloping yield curves that are both expected to remain stable, an inter-market carry trade can be constructed to avoid currency risk by simultaneously buying and selling both currencies. The choice of the trades depends on which yield curve has the steeper slope, which in this case is the bund yield curve. For swaps, one should receive fixed/pay floating in the steeper market (bunds) and pay fixed/receive floating in the flatter market (Treasuries). For futures, one should take a long position in the futures in the steeper market (bunds) and a short position in the futures in the flatter market (Treasuries). 这段怎么理解呢?谢谢
1 个答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年03月04日

这种就是特殊的Inter-market carry trade:Duration-neutral、Currency neutral、Most attractive carry trade;


普通的Inter-market carry trade,会出现2国的利率,例如在UK借6-month、在US投5-year;这样的Carry trade就会出现Currency risk;


为了避免在Carry trade赚取息差时的Currency risk,就出现了这种特殊的Inter-market carry trade。

我们可以选择在UK内部先借短期、投长期,例如在UK借6-month;投UK5-year;由于是一国内部的Carry trade,肯定是没有Currency risk的;但是借短期、投长期,势必会有正的Duration;我们需要构建Duration-neutral的inter-market carry trade,所以需要在另外一个国家借长期、投短期,构建一个负的Duration,刚好与UK正Duration相互抵消,实现净Duration=0。


例如,我们在US市场上,借长期5-year,投短期6-month,这样刚好构建了负的Duration,与UK市场结合构成的净Duration=0。

以上,就实现了Duration-neutral/Currency-neutral的Inter-market carry trade。


为了实现Most attractive的投资,我们就需要让这个策略的投资收益最大。如何达到最大呢?

在UK市场上,借短期、投长期的Carry trade息差需要最大。如果UK的收益率曲线越陡峭,则这个借短期、投长期的息差就越大。所以,一般我们就选择收益率曲线最陡峭的市场做借短期、投长期的Carry trade,这样可以尽可能实现最大的息差收益。


同时,在US市场上,由于是借长期、投短期,一般收益率曲线是向上倾斜的,这样的策略势必会有负的收益,会拖累整个策略的总收益;

因此,咱们就需要在收益率曲线最平缓的市场上,做借长期、投短期的策略。收益率越平缓,代表短期、长期利率的息差越小,那借长期、投短期这样的策略产生的负收益拖累就越小。


以上策略中:

在收益率曲线最陡峭的市场上,例如是UK,借6-month,投5-year,实现Carry trade最大收益,且没有Currency risk,但是有正Duration。

在收益率曲线最平缓的市场上,例如是US,借5-year,投6-month,实现负收益拖累最小,且与UK市场结合构建了Duration-neutral;

综上,我们的策略是:Duration-neutral/Currency-neutral/Most attractive inter-market carry trade。


注意,他本质上还是一个Inter-market carry trade。咱们的利率头寸为:

UK:借6-month,投5-year

US:投6-month,借5-year

如果我们竖着看,那该策略将是:

借UK 6-month,投US 6-month

借US 5-year,投UK 5-year

这个策略又可以看成是在US、UK分别做6-month的Inter-market carry trade与5-year的Inter-market carry trade,所以他本质还是一个Inter-market carry trade。但是经过上面的分析,他还是一个特殊的Inter-maket carry trade: Duration-neutral/Currency-neutral/Most attractive。


Given two upward-sloping yield curves that are both expected to remain stable, an inter-market carry trade can be constructed to avoid currency risk by simultaneously buying and selling both currencies. 

这句就是说,如果两国都是收益率曲线向上倾斜,且Remain stable,那么可以同时在两个国家内部借贷,可以构建没有Currency risk的Inter-market carry trade。


The choice of the trades depends on which yield curve has the steeper slope, which in this case is the bund yield curve. For swaps, one should receive fixed/pay floating in the steeper market (bunds) and pay fixed/receive floating in the flatter market (Treasuries).

这句的意思就是,为了实现Carry trade的收益最大,我们在收益率曲线更加陡峭的市场( the steeper slope),做借短期投长期的Carry trade。


由于一个利率互换自带2个利率头寸,Fixed rate对应长期利率,Floating rate对应短期利率。用2个国家的利率互换,也可以实现以上的特殊Inter-market carry trade。

就是在收益率曲线上最陡峭的市场上,Receive fixed/pay floating swap,因为Swap的Fixed rate就是长期利率,floating就是短期利率,这样的利率头寸就是:借短期、投长期。例如,在UK市场做这样的5-year Swap,现金流是Pay 6month floating/Receive 5-year fixed rate,就相当于是:借6month/投5-year的Carry trade


在收益率曲线更平缓的市场上借长期、投短期(Pay fixed,receive floating),例如,在US市场上做这样的5-year swap,现金流是Pay 5-year fixed/receive 6-month floating,就相当于是:借5-year/投6-month

用这样的2个国家的Swap,也可以实现这种特殊的Inter-market Carry trade.


For futures, one should take a long position in the futures in the steeper market (bunds) and a short position in the futures in the flatter market (Treasuries).

由于Futures自带两个利率头寸。用2个国家的Futures也可以实现这样的Inter-market carry trade。

例如,如果UK的利率更加陡峭,可以在UK市场上:Long 标的物为5-year债券、期限为半年的Futures。这样的头寸相当于是:借6-Month/投5-year;

US市场上的利率更加平缓,可以在US市场上:Short标的物为5-year债券、期限为半年的Futures。这样的头寸相当于是:借5-year/投6-month。

关于为啥一个Futures自带2个利率头寸,一个Long Futures就可以看成是Carry trade,可以参考这个回复:

https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/70795

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