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简ying · 2021年02月28日

验证了下b1和1的关系

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201709270100000407

问题如下:

7.Based on the mean-reverting level implied by the AR(1) model regression output in Exhibit 1, the forecasted oil price for September 2015 is most likely to be:

选项:

A.

less than $42.86.

B.

equal to $42.86.

C.

greater than $42.86.

解释:

C is correct. The mean-reverting level from the AR(1) model is calculated as

Xt=b01b1=1.594810.9767=$68.45{\overset\wedge X}_t=\frac{b_0}{1-b_1}=\frac{1.5948}{1-0.9767}=\$68.45

Therefore, the mean-reverting WTI oil price from the AR(1) model is $68.45. The forecasted oil price in September 2015 will likely be greater than $42.86 because the model predicts that the price will rise in the next period from the August 2015 price of $42.86.

AR(1)其实有个b1是not significant different from 1的情况,但是针对这道题就不用考虑这些对吗?
1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2021年02月28日

同学你好,

不用考虑,除非题干就指定要去检查b1=1的情况(基本不可能),否则AR模型检查的都是g=0的情况(DF test)。


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NO.PZ201709270100000407 问题如下 7.Baseon the mean-reverting level impliethe AR(1) mol regression output in Exhibit 1, the forecasteoil prifor September 2015 is most likely to be: less th$42.86. equto $42.86. greater th$42.86. C is correct. The mean-reverting level from the AR(1) mol is calculateasX∧t=b01−b1=1.59481−0.9767=$68.45{\overset\wee X}_t=\frac{b_0}{1-b_1}=\frac{1.5948}{1-0.9767}=\$68.45X∧t​=1−b1​b0​​=1−0.97671.5948​=$68.45Therefore, the mean-reverting WTI oil prifrom the AR(1) mol is $68.45. The forecasteoil priin September 2015 will likely greater th$42.86 because the mol prects ththe priwill rise in the next periofrom the August 2015 priof $42.86. 这道题可以用题目中给的AR1的公式,去计算2015年9月的数值吗?然后计算出来比42.86大。

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