NO.PZ201709270100000407
问题如下:
7.Based on the mean-reverting level implied by the AR(1) model regression output in Exhibit 1, the forecasted oil price for September 2015 is most likely to be:
选项:
A. less than $42.86.
B. equal to $42.86.
C. greater than $42.86.
解释:
C is correct. The mean-reverting level from the AR(1) model is calculated as
Therefore, the mean-reverting WTI oil price from the AR(1) model is $68.45. The forecasted oil price in September 2015 will likely be greater than $42.86 because the model predicts that the price will rise in the next period from the August 2015 price of $42.86.
AR(1)其实有个b1是not significant different from 1的情况,但是针对这道题就不用考虑这些对吗?