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张文文 · 2021年02月06日

问一道题:NO.PZ2018091706000057 [ CFA II ]

问题如下:

If the emerging market country used capital controls instead, this approach would:

选项:

A.

lead to a less independent monetary policy

B.

be more likely to succeed when capital flows are less persistent

C.

require that the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to FX market turnover be high

解释:

Although the empirical evidence is mixed, to a large extent the relativesuccess of capital controls depends on the magnitude and persistence of the capitalinflows that the policymakers are trying to resist (the less persistent, the higher theeffectiveness). A successful capital control policy tends to increase, not decrease,monetary policy independence. As a regulatory measure, capital controls do not dependdirectly on the level of foreign exchange reserves.

解析:尽管经验证据好坏参半,但在很大程度上,资本管控的有效力取决于政策制定者试图抵御的资本流入的规模和持续性(持续性越弱,有效性越高)。所以B选项正确。

一个成功的资本管控政策倾向于增加而不是减少货币政策的独立性。所以A选项错误。

作为一项监管措施,资本管制并不直接取决于外汇储备水平。所以C选项错误。


老师上课不是说新兴国家因为外汇储备较本币交易量比例较高 所以资本管控干预更有效 而发达国家比例小无效吗 C为什么错误呢
1 个答案

丹丹_品职答疑助手 · 2021年02月07日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学你好,不太清楚你说的老师说的具体在视频中哪个位置。我认为外汇储备比较高,其资本干预的能力会比较强。

但是从经验来看,对于EM,他们的资本升值会带来巨大的压力,从而引起他们的经济衰竭,所以他们会愿意使用有效的货币政策维护自身市场的稳定性,但由于黑市交易会影响货币政策的有效性。因此成功的资本管控应当回保持其自身的独立,而不受其他因素影响其有效性。同学可以试试看从这个角度是否能理解。(原版书)


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谷霖 · 2021年03月06日

何老师确实举例了像美元交易量大,美国当局想干预也不容易,新兴国家干预的能力强。 C选项是不是这么理解,题目问的是使用了干预会怎么样?不是问怎么样的话,干预效果更好。

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