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小叶子11 · 2021年01月27日

问一道题:NO.PZ2019103001000060 [ CFA III ]

问题如下:

Regarding inter-market trades in general her notes indicate:

IV. Inter-market trades should be assessed based on currency-hedged returns.

V. Anticipated changes in yield spreads are the primary driver of inter-market trades.

VI. Whether a bond offers a relatively attractive return depends on both the portfolio’s base currency and the currency in which the bond is denominated.

Which of Winslow’s statements about inter-market trades is incorrect?

选项:

A.

Statement IV

B.

Statement V

C.

Statement VI

解释:

C is correct.

Winslow’s Statement VI is incorrect. Due to covered interest arbitrage, the relative attractiveness of bonds does not depend on the currency into which they are hedged for comparison. Hence, the ranking of bonds does not depend on the base currency of the portfolio.

A is incorrect because Winslow’s Statement IV is correct. Inter-market trades should be assessed on the basis of returns hedged into a common currency. Doing so ensures that they are comparable. Neither local currency returns nor unhedged returns are comparable across markets because they involve different currency exposures/risks.

B is incorrect because Winslow’s Statement V is correct. The primary driver of inter-market trades is anticipated changes in yield differentials. Over horizons most relevant for active bond management, the capital gains/losses arising from yield movements generally dominate the income component of return (i.e., carry) and rolling down the curve. Hence, expectations with respect to yield movements are the primary driver of inter-market trade decisions.

C 选项为什么汇率变动不影响return的排序,hedge return=Rlc+Rfx 外币的升贬值会影响hedge return呀
2 个答案
已采纳答案

发亮_品职助教 · 2021年01月29日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


C选项说的是,债券的收益率排序,不受Portfolio base currency的影响。

这里做海外债券投资,我们是分为两步的:

(1)就是对所有的海外债券进行收益率排序,我们把所有的债券Hedge成一个Common currency,统一标准排序之后选择收益最高的债券;

(2)在第一步的基础上,然后再考虑投资时汇率的问题。

比如我们有2个Base currency,一个是人民币计价组合,一个是USD计价组合;

有3只债券,EUR债券、MXN债券、GBP债券。

现在我们想选出收益最高的债券,直接把三只债券Hedge成一个Common currency进行比较,例如Hedge成EUR进行比较,我们发现这三只债券的收益率排序为:

MXN > GBP > EUR

那对于人民币Portfolio,以及USD Portfolio,以上3个债券的排序是一样的,都是MXN债券的收益最高。

注意,以上的排序是客观的,无论对于哪个Base currency的Portfolio,以上排序都是一样的,都是MXN的债券收益率最高。

这就是这里所说的,Portfolio base currency并不影响债券收益率的排序。


第二步考虑汇率,才会进一步考虑将MXN的外币转换成人民币以及USD的外汇收益,在转换是需要比较分析是否要Hedge。


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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!


小叶子11 · 2021年01月30日

明白了,所以我那个hedge return 的公式是针对第二步的

Sharon Shi~~~ · 2021年11月07日

老师请教一下,我有点想不明白为啥common currency的选择不会影响排序。例如GBP relative to RMB升值,relative to USD贬值,直观地觉得common currency选择RMB对GBP债券更有利,EUR对RMB贬,对USD升值,common currency选usd对该债券更有利?

pzqa015 · 2021年11月08日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


同学,这里用到的不是GBP与RMB、USD的预期汇率的变化,而应该是根据covered interest parity用利率的信息,所以,直观上观察到的汇率变动对判断资产收益高低的选择用不上哈。

我以书上例题为例,给你证明一下这句话的结论。

墨西哥国家债券半年期投资利率:RMXN=4.5759%,希腊债券半年投资利率RGREEK=2.85%。

计算结果如下图所示:


所以不论用那种base currency,希腊的投资收益都是高于墨西哥的。


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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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NO.PZ2019103001000060 Statement V Statement VI C is correct. Winslow’s Statement VI is incorrect. e to covereinterest arbitrage, the relative attractiveness of bon es not penon the curreninto whithey are heefor comparison. Hence, the ranking of bon es not penon the base currenof the portfolio. A is incorrebecause Winslow’s Statement IV is correct. Inter-market tras shoulassesseon the basis of returns heeinto a common currency. ing so ensures ththey are comparable. Neither loccurrenreturns nor unheereturns are comparable across markets because they involve fferent currenexposures/risks. B is incorrebecause Winslow’s Statement V is correct. The primary iver of inter-market tras is anticipatechanges in yielfferentials. Over horizons most relevant for active bonmanagement, the capitgains/losses arising from yielmovements generally minate the income component of return (i.e., carry) anrolling wn the curve. Hence, expectations with respeto yielmovements are the primary iver of inter-market tra cisions. INTER-MARKET的驱动因素应该是利差保持不变吧?

2021-10-27 11:24 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2019103001000060 麻烦老师下A谢谢

2021-08-07 16:10 1 · 回答

NO.PZ2019103001000060 Statement V Statement VI C is correct. Winslow’s Statement VI is incorrect. e to covereinterest arbitrage, the relative attractiveness of bon es not penon the curreninto whithey are heefor comparison. Hence, the ranking of bon es not penon the base currenof the portfolio. A is incorrebecause Winslow’s Statement IV is correct. Inter-market tras shoulassesseon the basis of returns heeinto a common currency. ing so ensures ththey are comparable. Neither loccurrenreturns nor unheereturns are comparable across markets because they involve fferent currenexposures/risks. B is incorrebecause Winslow’s Statement V is correct. The primary iver of inter-market tras is anticipatechanges in yielfferentials. Over horizons most relevant for active bonmanagement, the capitgains/losses arising from yielmovements generally minate the income component of return (i.e., carry) anrolling wn the curve. Hence, expectations with respeto yielmovements are the primary iver of inter-market tra cisions. 帮忙下V的描述可以吗谢谢!

2021-04-11 15:14 1 · 回答

Statement V Statement VI C is correct. Winslow’s Statement VI is incorrect. e to covereinterest arbitrage, the relative attractiveness of bon es not penon the curreninto whithey are heefor comparison. Hence, the ranking of bon es not penon the base currenof the portfolio. A is incorrebecause Winslow’s Statement IV is correct. Inter-market tras shoulassesseon the basis of returns heeinto a common currency. ing so ensures ththey are comparable. Neither loccurrenreturns nor unheereturns are comparable across markets because they involve fferent currenexposures/risks. B is incorrebecause Winslow’s Statement V is correct. The primary iver of inter-market tras is anticipatechanges in yielfferentials. Over horizons most relevant for active bonmanagement, the capitgains/losses arising from yielmovements generally minate the income component of return (i.e., carry) anrolling wn the curve. Hence, expectations with respeto yielmovements are the primary iver of inter-market tra cisions.那还有个carry tra的类型是直接比较两国利率高低,借低的投高的,为什么就不用转换成common currency再比较了呢?

2020-11-29 23:46 1 · 回答