问题如下:
Now that there are 1000 observations with a VaR of 1.6 at the 95% confidence level calculated from historical simulations, which of the following statements is most likely to be true?
选项:
A.The observed values obey the normal distribution.
B.The observed values obey the lognormal distribution.
C.The tails of the observed value distribution are fatter than the normal distribution
D.The tails of the observed value distribution are thinner than the normal distribution
解释:
D is correct.
考点historical simulation
解析:如果是满足标准正态分布,那95%分位数的VAR值应为1.65,现在是1.6,所以尾巴上的分布应该比正态分布瘦。
标准差没有,均值也没有,假如均值是10,标准差是1呢,那这个VaR不就远高于正态分布了吗,那不是就属于大肥尾么